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1311
result(s)
Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain
Staff Working Paper 2003-3
René Lalonde,
Patrick Sabourin
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Exchange rates,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E17,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F47
Managing Operational Risk in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems
Staff Working Paper 2003-2
Kim McPhail
Awareness of operational risk has increased greatly in recent years, both at individual financial institutions and for payment, clearing, and settlement systems (PCSS). PCSS consist of networks of interconnected elements (i.e., central operators, participants, and settlement agents); operational problems at any one of the key elements have the potential to disrupt the system as a whole and negatively affect financial stability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G2,
G21
Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence
Staff Working Paper 2003-1
Eric Santor
Recent events, such as the East Asian, Mexican, Scandinavian, and Argentinian crises, have sparked considerable interest in exploring how shocks experienced by one country can spread vis-à-vis real and nominal links to other countries' banking systems. Given the large costs associated with banking-system failures, both economists and policy-makers are interested in predicting the onset of banking crises and assessing the likelihood of contagion during crisis events.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F30,
G,
G2,
G20
Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques
Staff Working Paper 2002-42
Dominique Tremblay
The author presents empirical evidence that he has obtained from an analysis of the response of different economic variables, including the real wage rate, to a technology shock.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32
Estimating Settlement Risk and the Potential for Contagion in Canada's Automated Clearing Settlement System
Staff Working Paper 2002-41
Carol Ann Northcott
Payments systems operate virtually unnoticed in our daily lives and yet are crucial to a wellfunctioning economy and financial system.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G2,
G21
Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects
Staff Working Paper 2002-40
Greg Tkacz
Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
E,
E3,
E31
An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth
Staff Working Paper 2002-39
Francis Vitek
Within a unified framework, the author conducts an empirical investigation of dynamic interrelationships among inflation, inflation uncertainty, relative price dispersion, and output growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Oil-Price Shocks and Retail Energy Prices in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2002-38
Marwan Chacra
The effects of global energy-price shocks on retail energy prices in Canada are examined. More specifically, the author looks at the response of the consumer price indexes for gasoline, heating oil, natural gas, and electricity in Canada to movements in world crude oil prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C51,
C53,
Q,
Q4,
Q40
Alternative Public Spending Rules and Output Volatility
Staff Working Paper 2002-37
Jean-Paul Lam,
William Scarth
One of the central lessons learned from the Great Depression was that adjusting government spending each year to balance the budget increases the volatility of output.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E62