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1901
result(s)
April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2016-4
Andrew Agopsowicz,
Dany Brouillette,
Shutao Cao,
Natalia Kyui,
Pierre St-Amant
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030
Staff Working Paper 2016-15
Jeannine Bailliu,
Mark Kruger,
Argyn Toktamyssov,
Wheaton Welbourn
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E3,
E32,
O4
A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard
Staff Working Paper 2016-14
Warren E. Weber
This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Exchange rates,
Financial services,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
E58
Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap
Staff Analytical Note 2016-3
David Amirault,
Naveen Rai
Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
J,
J0,
J01,
R,
R2,
R23
Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation
Staff Working Paper 2016-13
Christopher Hajzler,
Jonathan Rosborough
Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Economic models,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F21,
F23,
F3,
F34
Capital Structure, Pay Structure and Job Termination
Staff Working Paper 2016-12
Jason Allen,
James R. Thompson
We develop a model to analyze the link between financial leverage, worker pay structure and the risk of job termination. Contrary to the conventional view, we show that even in the absence of any agency problem among workers, variable pay can be optimal despite workers being risk averse and firms risk neutral.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G24,
J,
J3,
J33
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries
Staff Working Paper 2016-11
Benjamin Klaus,
Tuomas Peltonen,
Thibaut Duprey
This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Monetary and financial indicators
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C54,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G15
Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures
Staff Working Paper 2016-10
Fuchun Li,
Héctor Pérez Saiz
We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23
Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar
Staff Analytical Note 2016-2
Kimberly Berg,
Pierre Guérin,
Yuko Imura
Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Exchange rates