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1901
result(s)
Cash Versus Card: Payment Discontinuities and the Burden of Holding Coins
Cash is the preferred method of payment for small value transactions generally less than $25. We provide insight to this finding with a new theoretical model that characterizes and compares consumers’ costs of paying with cash to paying with cards for each transaction.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
D,
D0,
D03,
E,
E4,
E42
On the Tail Risk Premium in the Oil Market
Staff Working Paper 2017-46
Reinhard Ellwanger
This paper shows that changes in market participants’ fear of rare events implied by crude oil options contribute to oil price volatility and oil return predictability. Using 25 years of historical data, we document economically large tail risk premia that vary substantially over time and significantly forecast crude oil futures and spot returns.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C58,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G1,
G12,
G13,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Communicating Uncertainty in Monetary Policy
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-14
Sharon Kozicki,
Jill Vardy
While central banks cannot provide complete foresight with respect to their future policy actions, it is in the interests of both central banks and market participants that central banks be transparent about their reaction functions and how they may evolve in response to economic developments, shocks, and risks to their outlooks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61,
E65
Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-13
Rhys R. Mendes,
Stephen Murchison,
Carolyn A. Wilkins
For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61,
E65
Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices
Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12
Rose Cunningham,
Min Jae Kim,
Christian Friedrich,
Kristina Hess
In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature
Staff Analytical Note 2017-20
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Alexa Evans,
Subrata Sarker,
Lena Suchanek
In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81,
O,
O3,
O33
Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics
Staff Analytical Note 2017-19
Wei Dong,
James Fudurich,
Lena Suchanek
Firms increasingly rely on digital technologies such as e-commerce, cloud computing, big data, digital tracking and digital platforms that are reshaping business operations, business models and market structures. In this context, the Bank of Canada consulted with firms in wholesale, retail and logistics, as well as with related industry associations to yield insights on the adoption of digital technologies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Service sector
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81,
L9,
L92,
O,
O3,
O33
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions
Staff Working Paper 2017-45
Geoffrey R. Dunbar,
Arthur Lewbel,
Krishna Pendakur
Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C31,
D,
D1,
D11,
D12,
D13,
I,
I3,
I32
Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth
Staff Analytical Note 2017-18
Jing Yang,
Ben Tomlin,
Olivier Gervais
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E24,
E27,
E5