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1901
result(s)
How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables
Staff Working Paper 2007-1
John Galbraith,
Greg Tkacz
For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53
Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation
Staff Working Paper 2006-49
Jason Allen,
Robert Amano,
David Byrne,
Allan Gregory
The authors provide a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. They examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1981 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C3,
C32,
R,
R2
Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective
Staff Working Paper 2006-48
David Bolder
Modelling term-structure dynamics is an important component in measuring and managing the exposure of portfolios to adverse movements in interest rates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C6,
E,
E4,
G,
G1
Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector
Staff Working Paper 2006-47
Miroslav Misina,
David Tessier,
Shubhasis Dey
Stress testing, at its most general level, is an investigation of the performance of an entity under abnormal operating conditions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C15,
G,
G2,
G21,
G3,
G33
Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation
Staff Working Paper 2006-46
Sharon Kozicki,
P. A. Tinsley
Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E5
The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle
Staff Working Paper 2006-45
Francisco Covas,
Wouter den Haan
The authors show that debt and equity issuance are procyclical for most listed U.S. firms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
G,
G1,
G3
The Long-Term Effects of Cross-Listing, Investor Recognition, and Ownership Structure on Valuation
Staff Working Paper 2006-44
Michael R. King,
Dan Segal
The authors show that the widening of a foreign firm's U.S. investor base and the improved information environment associated with cross-listing on a U.S. exchange each have a separately identifiable effect on a firm's valuation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G15
ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model
Technical Report No. 97
Stephen Murchison,
Andrew Rennison
The authors provide a detailed technical description of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), which replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E17,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E30,
E4,
E40,
E5,
E50,
F,
F4,
F41
Efficient Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts on Several Risky Assets
Staff Working Paper 2006-43
Alexander Melnikov,
Yuliya Romanyuk
The authors use the efficient hedging methodology for optimal pricing and hedging of equity-linked life insurance contracts whose payoff depends on the performance of several risky assets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D81,
G,
G1,
G10,
G12