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1934
result(s)
Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29
Marc-André Gosselin,
Sharon Kozicki
Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C51,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E47,
E5,
E52
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
Staff Analytical Note 2023-17
Julien Champagne,
Erik Ens,
Xing Guo,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Alexander Lam,
Corinne Luu,
Sarah Miller,
Patrick Sabourin,
Joshua Slive,
Temel Taskin,
Jaime Trujillo,
Shu Lin Wee
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
A,
A1,
A10,
E,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E31,
J,
J1,
J11,
J15
Testing Collusion and Cooperation in Binary Choice Games
Staff Working Paper 2023-58
Erhao Xie
This paper studies the testable implication of players’ collusive or cooperative behaviour in a binary choice game with complete information. I illustrate the implementation of this test by revisiting the entry game between Walmart and Kmart.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C57,
L,
L1,
L13
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.
Staff Working Paper 2023-57
Anna Maria Mayda,
Mine Z. Senses,
Walter Steingress
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
International topics,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F22,
H,
H4,
H41,
H7,
J,
J6,
J61,
J68,
R,
R5
How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash?
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-28
Heng Chen,
Daneal O’Habib,
Hongyu Xiao
This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Financial services,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21,
J,
J1,
J15,
R,
R5,
R51
International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers
Staff Working Paper 2023-56
Sami Alpanda,
Uluc Aysun,
Serdar Kabaca
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E6,
E62,
F,
F4,
F41,
F44
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-27
Vivian Chu,
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Christopher Hajzler
This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Digitalization,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
L,
L1,
L11
Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how
Staff Analytical Note 2023-16
Ajit Desai
This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
A,
A1,
A10,
B,
B2,
B23,
C,
C4,
C45,
C5,
C55
The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
Staff Working Paper 2023-55
Serdar Birinci,
Youngmin Park,
Kurt See
When estimating earnings losses upon job separation, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E32,
J,
J3,
J31,
J6,
J63,
J65