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227
result(s)
Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?
Staff Analytical Note 2024-17
Jabir Sandhu,
Rishi Vala
We find that on any given day, nearly half of Government of Canada bond transactions by clients of dealers can be offset with other clients, including during the turmoil in March 2020. Our results show that under certain conditions clients could potentially trade directly with each other and are a step towards understanding the relevance of broader all-to-all trading in the Government of Canada bond market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D47,
D5,
D53,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G12,
G13,
G14,
G2,
G21,
G23
How big is cash-futures basis trading in Canada’s government bond market?
Staff Analytical Note 2024-16
Andreas Uthemann,
Rishi Vala
Cash-futures basis trading has grown alongside the Government of Canada bond futures market. We examine this growth over time in relation to Government of Canada bond and repurchase agreement markets and provide details on the type of market participants that engage in this type of trading activity.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D47,
D5,
D53,
G,
G1,
G12,
G2,
G23
Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2023 global monitoring report
Staff Analytical Note 2024-15
Malcolm Fisher,
Alan Walsh
We share insights from Canadian data from 2002 to 2022 that the Bank of Canada collected. The Bank submits these data each year to the Financial Stability Board for inclusion in its Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21,
G22,
G23
Impacts of interest rate hikes on the consumption of households with a mortgage
Staff Analytical Note 2024-14
Panagiotis Bouras,
Joaquín Saldain,
Xing Guo,
Thomas Michael Pugh,
Maria teNyenhuis
We assess how much the recent rate-hike cycle has and will affect mortgage borrowers' consumption through its impacts on mortgage payments. Our analysis provides insights into the effects of changes in monetary policy on the consumption of mortgage borrowers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D13,
E,
E2,
E21,
G,
G5
Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model
Staff Analytical Note 2024-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean Garry Junior Roc,
Yang Zhang
We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
E37,
E5,
E52,
E6
Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach
Staff Analytical Note 2024-12
Dany Brouillette,
Tessa Devakos,
Raven Wheesk
We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Digitalization,
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D24,
J,
J1,
J11,
O,
O3,
O33,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2024-11
Tessa Devakos,
Christopher Hajzler,
Stephanie Houle,
Craig Johnston,
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Ron Rautu,
Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024
Staff Analytical Note 2024-10
Amor Aniss Benmoussa,
Raheeb Dastagir,
Eshini Ekanayake,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
Helen Lao,
Jenna Rolland-Mills,
Aidan Spencer,
Lin Xiang
This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
F,
F0,
O,
O4
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update
Staff Analytical Note 2024-9
Frida Adjalala,
Felipe Alves,
Hélène Desgagnés,
Wei Dong,
Dmitry Matveev,
Laure Simon
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E43,
E5,
E50,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F41