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2378
result(s)
A Calibrated Model of Intraday Settlement
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-3
Héctor Pérez Saiz,
Siddharth Untawala,
Gabriel Xerri
This paper estimates potential exposures, netting benefits and settlement gains by merging retail and wholesale payments into batches and conducting multiple intraday settlements in this hypothetical model of a single "calibrated payments system." The results demonstrate that credit risk exposures faced by participants in the system are largely dependent on their relative activity in the retail and wholesale payments systems.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23
Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature
Staff Analytical Note 2018-3
Renaud St-Cyr
The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32
Tail Risk in a Retail Payment System: An Extreme-Value Approach
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-2
Héctor Pérez Saiz,
Blair Williams,
Gabriel Xerri
The increasing importance of risk management in payment systems has led to the development of an array of sophisticated tools designed to mitigate tail risk in these systems. In this paper, we use extreme value theory methods to quantify the level of tail risk in the Canadian retail payment system (ACSS) for the period from 2002 to 2015.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G23
Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities
Staff Working Paper 2018-4
Lutz Kilian,
Xiaoqing Zhou
It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F4,
F44,
Q,
Q1,
Q11,
Q3,
Q31,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
Wages: Measurement and Key Drivers
Staff Analytical Note 2018-2
Dany Brouillette,
Jonathan Lachaine,
Benoit Vincent
Available sources of hourly wage data in Canada sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note thus has two objectives: first, we develop a wage measure—the wage-common—to better capture the (underlying) wage pressures reflecting the common trend across the available data sources. Second, we re-examine the relationship between wage growth and macro drivers (labour market slack and labour productivity).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C38,
J,
J3
Canada’s Experience with Trade Policy
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-1
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Daniel de Munnik,
Laura Murphy
This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F13,
N,
N7,
N71,
N72
Speed Segmentation on Exchanges: Competition for Slow Flow
Staff Working Paper 2018-3
Lisa Anderson,
Emad Andrews,
Baiju Devani,
Michael Mueller,
Adrian Walton
In 2015, TSX Alpha, a Canadian stock exchange, implemented a speed bump for marketable orders and an inverted fee structure as part of a redesign. We find no evidence that this redesign impacted market-wide measures of trading costs or contributed appreciably to segmenting retail order flow away from other Canadian venues with a maker-taker fee structure.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G14,
G2,
G24
How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?
Staff Working Paper 2018-2
Monica Jain,
Christopher S. Sutherland
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D83,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52,
E58
Merchant Acceptance of Cash and Credit Cards at the Point of Sale
Staff Analytical Note 2018-1
Ben Fung,
Kim Huynh,
Kerry Nield,
Angelika Welte
Recent data show that the use of credit cards in Canada has been increasing, while the use of cash has been declining. At the same time, only two-thirds of small or medium-sized businesses accept credit cards.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
D,
D1,
E,
E4,
E41