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2378
result(s)
Trading on Long-term Information
Staff Working Paper 2020-20
Corey Garriott,
Ryan Riordan
Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G14,
G2,
G20,
L,
L1
The Market for Acquiring Card Payments from Small and Medium-Sized Canadian Merchants
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-5
Angelika Welte,
Jozsef Molnar
This note uses industry data and a unique dataset of small and medium-sized merchants to provide insights into the acquirer-merchant market in Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Financial services,
Market structure and pricing,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
D,
D2,
E,
E4,
E42
The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2020-19
Bruno Feunou,
Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin,
Roméo Tedongap,
Lai Xu
We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12
Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19
Staff Analytical Note 2020-8
Olga Bilyk,
Anson T. Y. Ho,
Mikael Khan,
Geneviève Vallée
COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Credit and credit aggregates,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Fiscal policy,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C21,
D,
D1,
D12,
D14,
E,
E2,
E24,
E27,
E6,
E62,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28,
R,
R2
Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-4
Thibaut Duprey
Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Monetary and financial indicators
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G0,
G01
How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers
Staff Working Paper 2020-18
Katya Kartashova,
Xiaoqing Zhou
We study the causal effect of mortgage rate changes on consumer spending, debt repayment and defaults during an expansionary and a contractionary monetary policy episode in Canada. We find asymmetric responses of consumer durable spending, deleveraging and defaults. These findings help us to understand household sector response to interest rate changes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
D14,
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
G,
G2,
G21,
R,
R3,
R31
Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change
Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3
Erik Ens,
Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Economic models,
Financial stability,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C68,
D,
D5,
D58,
E,
E5,
E50,
O,
O4,
O44,
P,
P1,
P18,
Q,
Q4,
Q5,
Q54,
Q55
Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation
Staff Working Paper 2020-17
Xing Guo
This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Firm dynamics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E22,
G,
G3,
G31,
G32
Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
Staff Working Paper 2020-16
Danilo Leiva-Leon,
Luis Uzeda
We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52