August 15, 2013
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2373
result(s)
August 15, 2013
Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies
The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E37
August 15, 2013
Big Data Analysis: The Next Frontier
The formulation of monetary policy at the Bank of Canada relies on the analysis of a broad set of economic information. Greater availability of immediate and detailed information would improve real-time economic decision making. Technological advances have provided an opportunity to exploit “big data” - the vast amount of digital data from business transactions, social media and networked computers. Big data can be a complement to traditional information sources, offering fresh insight for the monitoring of economic activity and inflation.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary and financial indicators
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C6,
C63,
C8,
C80
Is There a Quality Bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from Micro Data
Staff Working Paper 2013-24
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher-priced products, mostly for durable and semi-durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non-shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
M,
M1,
M11,
O,
O4,
O47
A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market
Staff Working Paper 2013-23
Ron Alquist,
Justin-Damien Guénette
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43,
Q47
The Threat of Counterfeiting in Competitive Search Equilibrium
Staff Working Paper 2013-22
Enchuan Shao
Recent studies in monetary theory show that if buyers can use lotteries to signal the quality of bank notes, counterfeiting does not occur in a pooling equilibrium. In this paper, I investigate the robustness of this non-existence result by considering an alternative trading mechanism.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
D83,
E,
E4,
E42
Why Do Emerging Markets Liberalize Capital Outflow Controls? Fiscal versus Net Capital Flow Concerns
Staff Working Paper 2013-21
Joshua Aizenman,
Gurnain Pasricha
In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the factors that motivated emerging economies to change their capital outflow controls in recent decades. Liberalization of capital outflow controls can allow emerging-market economies (EMEs) to reduce net capital inflow (NKI) pressures, but may cost their governments the fiscal revenues that external financial repression generates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial system regulation and policies,
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F32,
G,
G1,
G15
Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions
Staff Working Paper 2013-20
Nathan Porter,
TengTeng Xu
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58