High-quality, innovative research underpins everything we do. Explore the broad range of staff research that our people have the intellectual freedom to pursue, and learn about the ways in which the Bank collaborates with and supports the external research community.
You can also browse all our research and subscribe to our research newsletter and latest research feed.
Staff research
Staff research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. This research may support or challenge prevailing policy orthodoxy or differ from official Bank views. Therefore, views expressed are solely those of the authors, and no responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank.
Staff analytical notes
Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
Staff working papers
Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
Staff discussion papers
Staff discussion papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.
Technical reports
Technical reports provide detailed descriptions of staff research project methodologies and model development.
Research leadership
Profiles of the Bank’s economic research leadership, featuring their publications, education, and research fields.
Research staff
Profiles of the Bank’s research staff, featuring their publications, education and research fields.
Authors
Listing of current and past authors of Bank research papers, articles and other publications, 1994 to present.
Collaboration
Financial System Research Centre
The FSRC promotes financial system research in Canada to inform policy and improve the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.
Visiting Scholar Program
This program provides outstanding scholars with an opportunity to work at the Bank of Canada.
Conferences and workshops
Papers and proceedings from Bank of Canada conferences and workshops
Partnerships in Innovation and Technology (PIVOT) Program
We’re looking for innovators to help us respond to challenges that may not have a commercial solution readily available.
Awards
Research paper awards
At the Bank of Canada, we’re pleased to offer awards for research papers by students and by staff.
Scholarship awards
The Bank of Canada’s Scholarship and Work Placement program is designed to assist students with disabilities and Indigenous students in furthering their education and to encourage them to take an interest in the work performed by the Bank of Canada.
Fellowship Program
Learn more about a program to foster excellence in research in Canada and develop partnerships with experts outside the Bank of Canada in areas important to the Bank’s mandate.
The Governor's Challenge
The Governor’s Challenge simulates the monetary policy decision-making process by putting students in the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council.
Browse research
Find Bank of Canada research by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.
Research newsletters
Our newsletter summarizes internal and external publication contributions by Bank of Canada researchers.
Latest research
Is This Normal? The Cost of Assuming that Derivatives Have Normal Returns
Staff Working Paper 2024-46
Radoslav Raykov
Derivatives exchanges often determine collateral requirements, which are fundamental to market safety, with dated risk models assuming normal returns. However, derivatives returns are heavy-tailed, which leads to the systematic under-collection of collateral (margin). This paper uses extreme value theory (EVT) to evaluate the cost of this margin inadequacy to market participants in the event of default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G11,
G2,
G20
Preferences, Monetary Policy and Household Inflation
Staff Working Paper 2024-45
Geoffrey R. Dunbar
I quantify the importance of changes in household preferences on household inflation rates using 11 years of scanner data for 11,000 US households. My results suggest that changes in household preferences are an important driver of inflation dynamics at the household level.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
E,
E5,
E52,
E58
Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-17
Jeffrey Mollins,
Rachit Lumb
The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C4,
C5,
C52,
C8,
E,
E0,
E01,
E2,
E21
How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms
Staff Working Paper 2024-44
Janet Hua Jiang,
Rupal Kamdar,
Kelin Lu,
Daniela Puzzello
We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D15,
D8,
D84,
E,
E2,
E5,
E52,
E7