Indicators of capacity and inflation pressures for Canada

The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation.

Updated: April 16, 2025
Next update: June 5, 2025

The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is addressed by considering a wide range of indicators in various markets.

  • Many of these indicators are derived from data published by Statistics Canada, but some reflect information gathered by the Bank's regional representatives as well as by various outside sources. (See: Sources)
  • For further discussion of uncertainty as well as the information and analysis used to inform monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Canada, see the following:

The following tables are updated one day after the Bank's most recent announcement date for the target overnight rate, based on information available up to that date. When the fixed announcement date is accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the tables are updated on the day of release.

Inflation (year-over-year percentage change)
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Latest data
CPI Inflation 3.73.32.82.72.11.92.3 2.3 Mar
CPI-trim 3.63.53.22.92.62.72.8 2.8 Mar
CPI-median 3.83.63.33.12.72.72.8 2.9 Mar
CPI-common 4.63.93.02.42.12.12.3 2.3 Mar
Chain price index for GDP 1.93.33.43.92.72.2 2.2 Q4
Chain price index for consumption 3.63.22.83.02.52.4 2.4 Q4

Product market
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Latest data
Current MPR output gap (%)10.5-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.5 -0.5 Q4
Historical MPR output gap (%)1-0.1-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.5 -0.5 Q4
Output gap (Integrated framework) (%)1-0.7-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.7-1.4 -1.4 Q4
Output gap (Extended multivariate filter) (%)10.60.0-0.5-0.8-1.2-1.4 -1.4 Q4
Business Outlook SurveyDifficulty meeting an unanticipated increase in demand/sales (% firms)46455344473933 33 Q1
Unfilled orders/shipments - Manufacturing excluding aerospace products and parts0.800.800.810.810.820.83 0.81 Feb
Aggregate stock-to-sales ratio0.7560.7560.7700.7810.7820.770 0.770 Q4
Foreign demand for Canadian non-commodity exports (2007=100)1GRACE136.5137.3138.2139.1140.1139.6 139.6 Q4
FAM-IO149.9151.1152.2153.3154.7155.6 155.6 Q4
  1. 1. As of the most recent Monetary Policy Report. Learn more on the MPR current and historical output gaps and the extended multivariate filter and integrated framework. The current MPR output gap contains the estimates of the output gap embedded in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, whereas the historical MPR is a series containing historical estimates made in real time, without any revisions. The extended multivariate filter and integrated framework output gaps shown here are constructed as the difference between GDP and two alternative measures of potential output that are key inputs into the final potential output estimates embedded in the MPR.[]

Labour market
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Latest data
Unemployment rate (%) 5.55.75.96.36.66.76.6 6.7 Mar 
Labour market indicator (LMI) 5.55.65.86.16.46.56.4 6.5 Mar 
Participation rate (%) 65.865.865.665.665.365.365.3 65.2 Mar 
Growth in employment (annualized rate, %) 2.62.11.72.10.81.92.7 -0.2 Mar 2
Labour shortage (% firms, Business Outlook Survey) 32272215181720 20 Q1 
Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion, Business Outlook Survey) -46-44-39-54-34-42-38 -38 Q1 
  1. 2. Percentage change at monthly rate.[]

Wages and costs (year-over-year percentage change)3
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Latest data
Wage measuresLFS-Micro4.23.93.73.94.03.93.6 3.6 Mar
Labour Force Survey – Average Hourly Earnings5.05.05.15.04.94.43.6 3.5 Mar
Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours – Average Hourly Earnings3.92.93.13.44.75.7 5.6 Jan
Productivity Accounts – Compensation per Hour3.74.04.64.03.93.8 3.8 Q4
National Accounts – Hourly Wages and Salaries4.33.43.63.34.55.3 5.3 Q4
Unit labour costs - Total economy (labour income/GDP at market prices)5.94.95.24.34.03.8 3.8 Q4
Bank of Canada commodity price indexTotal-17.7-11.7-5.04.0-5.60.56.1 2.3 Mar
Energy-21.0-12.3-1.38.0-8.8-3.73.3 -3.0 Mar
Non-energy-12.7-10.7-9.7-1.0-1.55.99.9 9.6 Mar

  1. 3. Wage-common is no longer being published due to its discontinued use by Bank staff.[]
Real estate market
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Latest data
New housing price index (year-over-year percentage change)-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.10.0 0.1 Feb
Vacancy rateApartments (%)
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
1.5 2.3 2.3 Q4
Offices (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
16.616.717.117.017.217.317.3 17.3 Q1
Industrial market (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
2.12.73.33.84.14.85.3 5.3 Q1
Housing affordability index0.5480.5460.5170.5050.4850.470 0.470 Q4

Expectations
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q2Latest data
Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months of:
Source: The Conference Board of Canada
1% or less8341014146 Q1
2% or less19222430584227 27 Q1
3% or less48687076857155 55 Q1
More than 3%52323024152945 45 Q1
CPI inflation: Consensus Forecasts (year-over-year percentage change)
Source: Consensus Economics
20242.42.62.62.52.62.5 2.4 Dec
2025 2.12.12.12.02.1 2.1 Mar
2026 2.1 2.1 Mar
2-3 years2.02.12.12.02.02.02.1 2.1 Q1
6-10 years2.12.02.02.02.12.12.1 2.1 Q1
Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years to be:
Source: Business Outlook Survey
Less than 1%0000200 Q1
1-2%4333102423 23 Q1
2-3%39395448625144 44 Q1
More than 3%53544041152023 23 Q1
Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread1.71.71.71.81.71.81.9 1.8 Mar