In each survey cycle, respondents are asked to complete a standardized questionnaire. Bank staff then conduct follow-up interviews with a subgroup of respondents.
Economic scenario
What is your forecast for real GDP growth (year-over-year percentage change) in the United States, Canada and globally?*
*Methodology: Please calculate your four-quarter (year-over-year) growth rate based on the end of Q4.
| United States | Canada | World | |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | |||
| End of 2024 |
What is the probability of real GDP growth in Canada being in each of the following ranges at the end of 2023 and 2024?
Responses must add to 100%.
| Below 0.00% | 0.01%–1.00% | 1.01%–2.00% | 2.01%–3.00% | 3.01%–4.00% | 4.01%–5.00% | Above 5.01% | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | 100% | |||||||
| End of 2024 | 100% |
Please identify up to three upside risks to your growth outlook for Canada.
| Potential upside risks |
|---|
| Greater deployment of accumulated savings |
| Stronger housing market |
| Rebuilding of inventory |
| Improving supply bottlenecks |
| Higher commodity prices |
| Larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus |
| Decreasing geopolitical risks |
| Easing of financial conditions |
| Looser monetary policy |
| Easing of health restrictions |
| Other (please specify) |
Please identify up to three downside risks to your growth outlook for Canada.
| Potential downside risks |
|---|
| Decreased purchasing power |
| Weaker housing market |
| Glut in inventory |
| More pronounced or more persistent supply bottlenecks |
| Lower commodity prices |
| Fiscal tightening |
| Increasing geopolitical risks |
| Tightening of financial conditions |
| Tighter monetary policy |
| Reinstatement of health restrictions |
| Other (please specify) |
How would you characterize the current level of Canadian GDP relative to potential output?
- Positive output gap (current GDP is greater than potential GDP)
(Dynamic question) When do you expect the output gap to close (202XQX)? - Negative output gap (current GDP is less than potential GDP)
(Dynamic question) When do you expect the output gap to close (202XQX)? - No output gap (current GDP is equal to potential GDP)
What is the probability of the Canadian and US economies being in a recession in each of the following time frames?*
*A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by real gross domestic product.
| Canada | United States | |
|---|---|---|
| In 0 to 6 months | ||
| In 6 to 12 months | ||
| In 12 to 18 months | ||
| In 18 to 24 months |
What is your forecast for annual total CPI inflation in Canada and the United States?
| Headline CPI—Canada | Headline PCE price index—United States | |
|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | ||
| End of 2024 | ||
| 5 years ahead |
What is the probability of annual total CPI inflation in Canada being in each of the following ranges at the end of 2023 and 2024?
Responses must add to 100%.
| Below 0.00% | 0.01%–1.00% | 1.01%–2.00% | 2.01%–3.00% | 3.01%–4.00% | Above 4.01% | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | 100% | ||||||
| End of 2024 | 100% |
Monetary policy
Federal Reserve
What is your forecast for the US Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate?
Please indicate the upper bound of the targeted range in this format: X.XX
| January 2023 | March 2023 | May 2023 | June 2023 | July 2023 | September 2023 | November 2023 | December 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) |
| 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) |
At what level do you expect the federal funds rate to peak in the current cycle in the United States?
| United States | |
|---|---|
| Peak level of the federal funds rate (%) |
What is your estimate of the long-term nominal neutral rate in the United States?
| United States | |
|---|---|
| Nominal neutral rate (%) |
Bank of Canada
What is your forecast for the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate?
Please indicate the policy interest rate in this format: X.XX
| January 2023 | March 2023 | April 2023 | June 2023 | July 2023 | September 2023 | October 2023 | December 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) |
| 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) |
How would you describe the balance of risks around your forecast for the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate?
- Skewed to a higher path
- Skewed to a lower path
- Risks are broadly balanced
At what level do you expect the policy rate to peak in the current cycle in Canada?
| Canada | |
|---|---|
| Peak level of the policy rate (%) |
What is your estimate of the long-term nominal neutral rate in Canada?
| Canada | |
|---|---|
| Nominal neutral rate (%) |
What adjustments to balance sheet measures are you expecting the Bank of Canada to carry out over the near term?
Please comment in the box below.
Financial assets
According to your economic scenario, what is your point estimate for the Canadian dollar?
| Economic scenario | ||
|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | End of 2024 | |
| Canadian dollar (USD per CAD) | ||
According to your economic scenario, what is your point estimate for the price of oil (West Texas Intermediate) per barrel?
| Economic scenario | ||
|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | End of 2024 | |
| Oil price per barrel (West Texas Intermediate, US$) | ||
According to your economic scenario, what are your point estimates for Canadian and US bond yields for each of the following maturities?
| Economic scenario | ||
|---|---|---|
| End of 2023 | End of 2024 | |
| 2-year Canadian bond yield (%) | ||
| 5-year Canadian bond yield (%) | ||
| 10-year Canadian bond yield (%) | ||
| 30-year Canadian bond yield (%) | ||
| 2-year US bond yield (%) | ||
| 5-year US bond yield (%) | ||
| 10-year US bond yield (%) | ||
| 30-year US bond yield (%) | ||