View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
Inflation and interest rates
Chart 1: Inflation expectations and perceptions
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 4.92 | 4.09 | 3.84 | 3.05 | 4.09 |
| 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.76 | 3.91 | 3.05 | 2.97 | 3.89 |
| 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.12 | 3.20 | 3.03 | 2.99 | 3.39 |
| Perceptions about current inflation | 5.25 | 5.24 | 4.82 | 3.89 | 3.94 |
Chart 2: Inflation expectations: uncertainty
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months (in 12 to 24 months / five years), the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...) | |||||
| Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.02 | 2.20 | 2.03 | 1.79 | 2.17 |
| Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 1.96 | 2.04 | 1.94 | 1.76 | 2.00 |
| Uncertainty, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 2.02 |
Chart 3: Components of inflation
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve months from now, what do you think will have happened to the price of the following items? | |||||
| Gasoline | 5.06 | 5.72 | 5.19 | 4.90 | 5.34 |
| Food | 5.24 | 5.71 | 5.37 | 5.03 | 5.89 |
| Cars | 5.59 | 5.71 | 5.33 | 5.21 | 5.95 |
| Rent | 7.94 | 8.79 | 5.98 | 5.72 | 5.68 |
Chart 4: Interest rate expectations
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now? | |||||
| 1 year ahead | 5.14 | 5.16 | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.44 |
| 2 years ahead | 5.09 | 5.24 | 4.98 | 4.25 | 4.50 |
| 5 years ahead | 4.88 | 4.98 | 4.83 | 4.35 | 4.87 |
Household finance, spending and sentiment
Chart 5: Financial well-being
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous 12 months: Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago? Next 12 months: And looking ahead, do you think you (and any family living with you) will be financially better or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days? | |||||
| Financial well-being compared to 12 months ago | -0.23 | -0.26 | -0.23 | -0.17 | -0.20 |
| Financial well-being 12 months from now | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
Chart 6: Access to credit
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous 12 months: Compared to 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages)? Next 12 months: And looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages) than it is these days? | |||||
| Access to credit compared to 12 months ago | -0.49 | -0.52 | -0.46 | -0.38 | -0.41 |
| Access to credit 12 months from now | -0.42 | -0.39 | -0.38 | -0.31 | -0.41 |
Chart 7: Probability of missing debt payment
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payments on credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, or any other debt you may have)? | |||||
| Probability of missing a debt payment | 5.03 | 5.53 | 5.32 | 7.82 | 7.61 |
Chart 8: Actions in light of inflation expectations
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations of inflation (deflation) over the next two years? | |||||
| Push for increased pay with current employer | 14.70 | 15.11 | 12.14 | 11.86 | 12.28 |
| Work more hours | 23.87 | 24.79 | 21.98 | 18.79 | 18.18 |
| Bring forward major purchases | 10.03 | 11.48 | 10.00 | 10.49 | 10.87 |
| Cut spending or push back major purchases | 60.50 | 61.63 | 57.55 | 56.19 | 57.14 |
| Shop around for better deals | 42.66 | 43.65 | 38.35 | 35.50 | 36.41 |
| No action | 23.73 | 23.65 | 25.59 | 27.04 | 26.67 |
Chart 9: Actions in light of interest rate expectations
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations for interest rates? | |||||
| Pay down debt | 29.24 | 30.96 | 29.64 | 29.04 | 28.84 |
| Bring forward major purchases | 8.52 | 8.42 | 9.20 | 10.43 | 11.27 |
| Cut spending or postpone major purchase | 64.15 | 65.90 | 63.32 | 57.40 | 60.88 |
| No action | 24.54 | 24.09 | 25.91 | 29.64 | 27.06 |
Chart 10: Household income and spending expectations
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Expected income growth, next 12 months | 2.49 | 2.39 | 2.20 | 2.36 | 2.22 |
| Expected spending growth, next 12 months | 3.86 | 3.91 | 3.59 | 3.35 | 3.88 |
Chart 11: Planned major purchases
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past six months: Did you make any major purchases (excluding homes or financial investments) in the past six months? Please indicate which item you purchased. Next six months: Do you plan to make any major purchases (excluding homes or financial investments) in the next six months? | |||||
| Past six months, vehicle | 7.43 | 9.07 | 8.84 | 8.67 | 9.33 |
| Past six months, vacation | 18.75 | 20.69 | 21.41 | 21.02 | 20.25 |
| Past six months, event | 3.42 | 3.76 | 3.41 | 4.73 | 4.35 |
| Past six months, appliance | 8.38 | 7.13 | 7.28 | 7.98 | 9.36 |
| Past six months, electronic | 6.15 | 4.88 | 6.92 | 6.50 | 6.76 |
| Past six months, other | 1.52 | 2.08 | 1.99 | 2.38 | 1.70 |
| Next six months, vehicle | 8.15 | 10.23 | 9.11 | 8.25 | 8.94 |
| Next six months, vacation | 22.45 | 23.39 | 22.41 | 23.70 | 23.89 |
| Next six months, event | 2.78 | 4.50 | 3.78 | 3.61 | 4.46 |
| Next six months, appliance | 6.20 | 6.19 | 6.39 | 7.50 | 5.82 |
| Next six months, electronic | 3.84 | 3.66 | 3.53 | 5.11 | 3.68 |
| Next six months, other | 2.01 | 2.52 | 1.45 | 2.21 | 1.94 |
Chart 12: Moving, selling or buying intentions
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of moving: For example, what do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence (that is, the place where you usually live)? Probability of selling: What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months, you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Buying intentions: Are you planning or thinking of buying a house or a condo now or have you bought one during the last year? | |||||
| More than 50% chance of moving in next 12 months | 20.31 | 21.65 | 21.11 | 22.37 | 23.49 |
| More than 50% chance of selling in next 12 months | 10.58 | 11.92 | 10.99 | 13.52 | 13.17 |
| Planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo | 14.98 | 14.04 | 14.21 | 16.09 | 14.21 |
| Renters planning to buy in next 12 months | 18.36 | 16.46 | 16.94 | 19.85 | 16.05 |
Chart 13: House price growth expectations
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Atlantic | 7.15 | 4.76 | 5.43 | 5.78 | 5.47 |
| Quebec | 4.74 | 5.57 | 4.68 | 4.76 | 5.49 |
| Ontario | 4.74 | 5.02 | 4.50 | 4.58 | 4.18 |
| Manitoba | 6.72 | 4.09 | 5.04 | 4.40 | 4.14 |
| Saskatchewan | 4.02 | 4.64 | 5.06 | 5.79 | 4.45 |
| Alberta | 5.35 | 5.47 | 4.95 | 5.05 | 5.03 |
| British Columbia | 4.21 | 4.90 | 4.64 | 4.18 | 3.92 |
| Canada | 4.84 | 5.11 | 4.71 | 4.82 | 4.63 |
Chart 14: Economic outlook
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? | |||||
| Significant decline | 17.15 | 19.97 | 15.90 | 15.31 | 30.15 |
| Small decline | 34.68 | 31.19 | 33.01 | 31.29 | 36.55 |
| Stable or little change | 33.79 | 33.09 | 32.89 | 36.08 | 22.02 |
| Some economic growth | 13.06 | 14.21 | 16.77 | 15.59 | 9.56 |
| Strong economic growth | 1.32 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.73 | 1.71 |
Labour
Chart 15: Labour turnover
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept? | |||||
| Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale) | 10.80 | 14.55 | 11.44 | 15.33 | 20.67 |
| Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale) | 19.26 | 20.35 | 16.72 | 19.03 | 20.15 |
| Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale) | 49.44 | 49.04 | 49.16 | 49.11 | 49.05 |
Chart 16: Wage growth expectations
| Series | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 | 2025Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 4.92 | 4.09 | 3.84 | 3.05 | 4.09 |
| Expected wage growth, next 12 months | 2.76 | 2.80 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.54 |
| Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months | 2.31 | 2.38 | 2.39 | 2.30 | 2.40 |