View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances.
Chart 1: Household income and spending expectations
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Expected income growth, next 12 months | 2.16 | 2.49 | 2.39 | 2.20 | 2.36 |
| Expected spending growth, next 12 months | 3.62 | 3.86 | 3.91 | 3.59 | 3.35 |
Chart 2: House price growth expectations
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)? | |||||
| Atlantic | 5.01 | 7.15 | 4.76 | 5.43 | 5.78 |
| Quebec | 4.61 | 4.74 | 5.57 | 4.68 | 4.76 |
| Ontario | 4.14 | 4.74 | 5.02 | 4.50 | 4.58 |
| Manitoba | 4.25 | 6.72 | 4.09 | 5.04 | 4.40 |
| Saskatchewan | 5.71 | 4.02 | 4.64 | 5.06 | 5.79 |
| Alberta | 4.12 | 5.35 | 5.47 | 4.95 | 5.05 |
| British Columbia | 4.15 | 4.21 | 4.90 | 4.64 | 4.18 |
| Canada | 4.38 | 4.84 | 5.11 | 4.71 | 4.82 |
Chart 3: Inflation expectations
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 4.92 | 4.92 | 4.09 | 3.84 | 3.05 |
| 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 3.94 | 3.76 | 3.91 | 3.05 | 2.97 |
| 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.62 | 3.12 | 3.20 | 3.03 | 2.99 |
| Perceptions about current inflation | 5.90 | 5.25 | 5.24 | 4.82 | 3.89 |
Chart 4: Inflation expectations: uncertainty
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months (in 12 to 24 months / five years), the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...) | |||||
| Uncertainty, 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 2.06 | 2.02 | 2.20 | 2.03 | 1.79 |
| Uncertainty, 2-year-ahead inflation expectations | 1.91 | 1.96 | 2.04 | 1.94 | 1.76 |
| Uncertainty, 5-year-ahead inflation expectations | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 1.85 |
Chart 5: Labour turnover
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept? | |||||
| Probability of losing job in the next 12 months (left scale) | 10.87 | 10.80 | 14.55 | 11.44 | 15.33 |
| Probability of leaving job voluntarily in the next 12 months (left scale) | 15.84 | 19.26 | 20.35 | 16.72 | 19.03 |
| Probability of finding job in the next 3 months if lost main job this month (right scale) | 49.13 | 49.44 | 49.04 | 49.16 | 49.11 |
Chart 6: Wage growth expectations
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months? | |||||
| 1-year-ahead inflation expectations | 4.92 | 4.92 | 4.09 | 3.84 | 3.05 |
| Expected wage growth, next 12 months | 2.73 | 2.76 | 2.80 | 2.66 | 2.66 |
| Perceptions about wage growth, past 12 months | 2.26 | 2.31 | 2.38 | 2.39 | 2.30 |
Chart 7: Interest rate expectations
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now? | |||||
| 1 year ahead | 5.93 | 5.14 | 5.16 | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| 2 years ahead | 5.95 | 5.09 | 5.24 | 4.98 | 4.25 |
| 5 years ahead | 5.17 | 4.88 | 4.98 | 4.83 | 4.35 |
Chart 8: Components of inflation
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items? | |||||
| Gasoline | 5.44 | 5.06 | 5.72 | 5.19 | 4.90 |
| Food | 5.78 | 5.24 | 5.71 | 5.37 | 5.03 |
| Cars | 6.47 | 5.59 | 5.71 | 5.33 | 5.21 |
| Rent | 9.29 | 7.94 | 8.79 | 5.98 | 5.72 |
| Entertainment | 9.22 | 8.78 | 9.11 | 7.28 | 7.24 |
| Meals at restaurants | 9.36 | 9.20 | 9.22 | 7.54 | 8.24 |
Chart 9: Economic outlook
| Series | 2023Q4 | 2024Q1 | 2024Q2 | 2024Q3 | 2024Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents) | |||||
| Significant decline | 22.77 | 17.15 | 19.97 | 15.90 | 15.31 |
| Small decline | 38.60 | 34.68 | 31.19 | 33.01 | 31.29 |
| No change | 27.99 | 33.79 | 33.09 | 32.89 | 36.08 |
| Some growth | 9.62 | 13.06 | 14.21 | 16.77 | 15.59 |
| Strong growth | 1.02 | 1.32 | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.73 |