Tom Roberts - Latest

• A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-24 Thibaut Duprey, Tom Roberts

  This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, C40, D, D1, D14, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, F, F0, F01, G, G0, G01, G1, G15, G2, G21, H, H6, H63

• A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes

  Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts

  Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19

• Household Risk Assessment Model

  Technical Report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts

  Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14

• The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10

  Staff Working Paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts

  This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28
• December 15, 2015

  Indebted Households and Potential Vulnerabilities for the Canadian Financial System: A Microdata Analysis

  Financial System Review - December 2015 Gino Cateau, Tom Roberts, Jie Zhou

  Over the past decade, an increasing proportion of households in Canada have become highly indebted relative to their income. These highly indebted households now hold one-fifth of total Canadian household debt.Simulations suggest that this greater degree of household indebtedness could exacerbate the impact of shocks to income and interest rates relative to the pre-crisis period. However, an assessment of the vulnerability of the Canadian financial system should, among other factors, account for the ability of Canadian financial institutions to withstand losses from the household sector.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, E, E5, E51
• November 14, 2013

  Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Gurnain Pasricha, Tom Roberts, Ian Christensen, Brad Howell

  This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01
• June 14, 2012

  An Improved Framework for Assessing the Risks Arising from Elevated Household Debt

  Financial System Review - June 2012 Umar Faruqui, Xuezhi Liu, Tom Roberts

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles

• The Impact of Operational Events on the Network Structure of the LVTS

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-7 Tom Roberts

  The author uses a quantitative network analysis approach to assess how participants in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) respond to partial outages at other banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C49, G, G1, G14, G2, G21
• February 17, 2011

  Payment Networks: A Review of Recent Research

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 James Chapman, Lana Embree, Tom Roberts, Nellie Zhang

  In this article, the authors review work done at the Bank of Canada and at other central banks with the relatively new application of network analysis to the study of payments systems.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Payment clearing and settlement systems

• Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-13 Lana Embree, Tom Roberts

  Analysis of the characteristics and structure of a network of financial institutions can provide insight into the complex relationships and interdependencies that exist in a payment, clearing, and settlement system (PCSS), and allow an intuitive understanding of the PCSS's efficiency, stability, and resiliency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D8, D85, G, G1, G10