Stephen S. Poloz - Latest

• May 2, 2013

  Appointment of the next Governor of the Bank of Canada (Video)

  

  Press conference about the appointment of the new Governor of the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Webcasts

• The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1996-12 Mario Lefebvre, Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32
• May 17, 1996

  The Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Gordon Thiessen, Bruce Montador, Kevin Clinton, Kevin Fettig, Donna Howard, Charles Freedman, Pierre Duguay, Stephen S. Poloz, Tim Noël

  Text of major 1995 lecture by Bank Governor Gordon Thiessen, plus articles from Bank of Canada Review and other sources

  Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5
• November 9, 1994

  The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Stephen S. Poloz, David Rose, Robert Tetlow

  This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models

• The Causes of Unemployment in Canada: A Review of the Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 1994-11 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper reviews various competing theories of structural unemployment and considers whether they may be used to explain any of the rise in unemployment experienced by Canada during the most recent economic cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets

• Fiscal Policy and External Balance in the G-7 Countries

  Technical Report No. 60 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper assesses evidence, from the G-7 countries, of a link between a country's fiscal policy and its external balance, often referred to as the "twin deficits" phenomenon. It begins by reviewing the stylized facts, and then examines the theoretical case for such a link.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, H, H6, H60

• Is Hysteresis a Characteristic of the Canadian Labour Market? A Tale of Two Studies

  Staff Working Paper 1992-3 Stephen S. Poloz, Gordon Wilkinson

  This paper replicates and extends the econometric work of two previous studies of output-inflation dynamics in Canada -- Fortin (1991) and Cozier and Wilkinson (1991) -- in an attempt to reconcile their divergent conclusions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers

• An Analysis of the Information Content of Alternative Monetary Aggregates

  Technical Report No. 48 Doug Hostland, Stephen S. Poloz, Paul Storer

  In this study the authors compare the information content of alternative monetary aggregates with respect to total spending in the economy, using data for Canada. The analysis considers 46 monetary measures, about half of which constitute conventional summation aggregates, while the remainder are superlative indices of monetary services based on the Fisher Ideal formula. The […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51

• A Comparison of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes in a Small Dynamic Open-Economy Simulation Model

  Technical Report No. 42 David Longworth, Stephen S. Poloz

  In this paper, the simulation properties of a small, dynamic, open-economy IS-LM-Aggregate Supply model are examined under a variety of alternative policy rule assumptions. These assumptions include rigid money stock, exchange rate and nominal income targets, as well as less rigid policy rules that recognize information limitations. The model that is used consists of four […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• An Integrated Model of the Portfolio Behaviour of the Canadian Household Sector: 1968-1983

  Technical Report No. 41 Stephen S. Poloz

  An econometric model of the portfolio behaviour of the Canadian household sector is developed to study the linkages between demands for financial assets. The theoretical basis for the model is a version of the well-known Brainard-Tobin framework, which is extended to integrate the consumption-savings and portfolio-allocation decisions. This integration allows joint estimation of the real […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11