Sermin Gungor - Latest

• The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Joe Nesrallah, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jonathan Witmer

  We assess the response of Government of Canada bond yields to the Bank of Canada’s initial announcement of the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) as well as to the Bank’s later GBPP purchase operations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E63

• Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID‑19 event study

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer

  The Bank of Canada launched the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility (BAPF) to ensure that the bankers’ acceptance (BA) market could continue to function well during the financial crisis induced by the COVID‑19 pandemic. We review the impact that the announcement of this facility had on BA yields in the secondary market. We find that BA yield spreads declined by 15 basis points on the day of the announcement and by up to 70 basis points over a longer period. Using an econometric framework, we quantify the effect of the announcement and confirm early assertions presented in the Bank’s 2020 Financial System Review.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

• Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Deteriorated?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-31 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang

  Since 2010, the liquidity of corporate bonds has improved on average, while their trading activity has remained stable. We find that the liquidity and trading activity of riskier bonds or bonds issued by firms in different sectors have been stable. However, the liquidity and trading activity of bonds issued by banks have improved. We observe short-lived episodes of deterioration in liquidity and trading activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

• Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Provincial Bond Market Deteriorated?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-30 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang

  In recent years, the liquidity in the secondary market for Canadian provincial bonds was a concern for many market participants. We find that a proxy for the bid-ask spread has deteriorated modestly since 2010. However, a proxy for price impact as well as measures of trade size, the number of trades and turnover have been stable or improved since 2010. This holds for bonds issued by different provinces and for bonds of different ages and sizes. Alberta bonds provide an interesting case study: After the fall in oil prices in 2014–15, the province increased its borrowing in the bond market and its credit rating was downgraded. Yet trading activity for Alberta bonds increased significantly. Overall, we interpret the evidence as a sign of resilience in the provincial bond market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

• Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor

  This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23

• Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Jun Yang

  This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
• May 11, 2017

  The Life Cycle of Government of Canada Bonds in Core Funding Markets

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor

  Data on the use of government securities in the repo, securities lending and cash markets suggest there are bond market clienteles in Canada. Shorter-term bonds are more prevalent in the repo market, while longer-maturity securities are more active in the securities lending market—consistent with the preferred habitat hypothesis. These results could help design better debt-management strategies and more-effective policies to maintain well-functioning financial markets.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G23

• Small‐Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non‐Stationary Regressors and GARCH‐Type Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a simulation-based procedure to test for stock return predictability with multiple regressors. The process governing the regressors is left completely free and the test procedure remains valid in small samples even in the presence of non-normalities and GARCH-type effects in the stock returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C3, C32, G, G1, G14

• Funding Liquidity, Market Liquidity and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2015-12 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, René Garcia, Sermin Gungor

  Following theory, we check that funding risk connects illiquidity, volatility and returns in the cross-section of stocks. We show that the illiquidity and volatility of stocks increase with funding shocks, while contemporaneous returns decrease with funding shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, H, H1, H12

• Bootstrap Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency with Multiple Portfolio Groupings

  Staff Working Paper 2014-51 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We propose double bootstrap methods to test the mean-variance efficiency hypothesis when multiple portfolio groupings of the test assets are considered jointly rather than individually.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, C15, G, G1, G12