Michael Francis - Latest

• December 23, 2006

  Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis

  Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics

• Institutional Quality, Trade, and the Changing Distribution of World Income

  Staff Working Paper 2006-19 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis

  Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F15, O, O1, O11, P, P4, P48
• April 25, 2005

  Understanding China's Long-Run Growth Process and Its Implications for Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Michael Francis, François Painchaud, Sylvie Morin

  In the past 25 years, China has introduced numerous reforms, gradually moving from a centrally planned economy towards a socialist market economy capable of robust and sustainable economic growth. China's increasing integration into the global economy, which has been fuelled by this recent and rapid economic growth, has already begun to affect the economies of other countries and to present challenges for policy-makers, both in China and abroad. In addition to examining the determinants of China's past and current growth, the authors consider factors that are likely to support continued growth in the future and assess the implications for both the world and the Canadian economies.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, International topics

• Governance and Financial Fragility: Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2003-34 Michael Francis

  The author explores the role of governance mechanisms as a means of reducing financial fragility. First, he develops a simple theoretical general-equilibrium model in which instability arises due to an agency problem resulting from a conflict of interest between the borrower and lender.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0