December 13, 2007
Marc-André Gosselin - Latest
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Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting
The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks. -
October 20, 2006
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
Staff projections provided for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision process take into account the integration of Canada's very open economy within the global economy, as well as its close real and financial linkages with the United States. To provide inputs for this projection, the Bank has developed several models, including MUSE, NEUQ (the New European Quarterly Model), and BoC-GEM (Bank of Canada Global Economy Model), to analyze and forecast economic developments in the rest of the world. The authors focus on MUSE, the model currently used to describe interaction among the principal U.S. economic variables, including gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate. Brief descriptions are also provided of NEUQ and BoC-GEM. -
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An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Reserves in Emerging Asia
Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S. -
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. -
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine
In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. -
Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépenses des ménages américains
Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs. -
An Eclectic Approach to Estimating U.S. Potential GDP
The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP. -
The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States
This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States.
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