Galip Kemal Ozhan - Latest

• The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62

• International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51

• Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin

  We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

• News-Driven International Credit Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan

  This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21

• Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

  Staff Working Paper 2020-13 Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15