Fuchun Li - Latest

• Quantifying the Economic Benefits of Payments Modernization: the Case of the Large-Value Payment System

  Staff Working Paper 2021-64 Neville Arjani, Fuchun Li, Zhentong Lu

  Canada is undertaking a major initiative to modernize its payments ecosystem. The modernized ecosystem is expected to bring significant benefits to Canadian financial markets and the overall economy. We develop an empirical framework to quantify the economic benefits of modernizing the payment system in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, G28

• Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao

  We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures

  Staff Working Paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz

  We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23

• Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2015-17 Fuchun Li

  The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, E, E1, E17, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G2, G20

• Predicting Financial Stress Events: A Signal Extraction Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2014-37 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The objective of this paper is to propose an early warning system that can predict the likelihood of the occurrence of financial stress events within a given period of time. To achieve this goal, the signal extraction approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) is used to monitor the evolution of a number of economic indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behaviour in the periods preceding a financial stress event.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C4, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, F, F3, F36, F37, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events

  Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2011-19 Toni Gravelle, Fuchun Li

  In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G3, G32
• November 18, 2010

  Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant

  The recent global crisis was characterized by a remarkable intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Monetary policy transmission

• Identifying Asymmetric Comovements of International Stock Market Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2010-21 Fuchun Li

  Based on a new approach for measuring the comovements between stock market returns, we provide a nonparametric test for asymmetric comovements in the sense that stock market downturns will lead to stronger comovements than market upturns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C4, C49, F, F2, F21, G, G1, G15, G19

• Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity

  Staff Working Paper 2010-12 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant

  This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, E, E5, E50, G, G0, G01