Dmitry Matveev - Latest

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon

  We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin

  We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

• The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-5 Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev

  We use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5

• Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin

  We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

• The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence

  Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev

  Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62

• Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

  Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia

  Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31

• Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-4 Wei Dong, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Christian Friedrich, Dmitry Matveev, Romanos Priftis, Lin Shao

  This paper surveys and summarizes the literature on how fiscal policy and monetary policy can complement each other in stabilizing economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62, E63

• The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel

  The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment

  Staff Working Paper 2019-52 Dmitry Matveev

  I show that maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during a period of government debt reduction. I consider a New Keynesian model and study a dynamic game of monetary and fiscal policy authorities without commitment, characterizing the incentives that drive the choice of interest rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63