Ben Tomlin - Latest

• Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data

  Staff Working Paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin

  We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81

• Climate Variability and International Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin

  This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54

• Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products

  Staff Working Paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin

  Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4

• Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-18 Jing Yang, Ben Tomlin, Olivier Gervais

  We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E24, E27, E5

• April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin

  This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

  Staff Working Paper 2016-51 Leonid Karasik, Danny Leung, Ben Tomlin

  In order to understand what drives aggregate fluctuations, many macroeconomic models point to aggregate shocks and discount the contribution of firm-specific shocks. Recent research from other developed countries, however, has found that aggregate fluctuations are in part driven by idiosyncratic shocks to large firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, L, L6

• On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-7 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Miguel Molico, Ben Tomlin

  Because financial and macroeconomic conditions are tightly interconnected, financial stability considerations are an important element of any monetary policy framework. Yet, the circumstances under which it would be appropriate for the Bank to use monetary policy to lean against financial risks need to be more fully specified (Côté 2014).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E0, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G18

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share

  Staff Working Paper 2015-31 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin

  This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass-through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market—that is, exporting firms and importing firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4

• Measuring Potential Output at the Bank of Canada: The Extended Multivariate Filter and the Integrated Framework

  Staff Discussion Paper 2015-1 Lise Pichette, Pierre St-Amant, Ben Tomlin, Karine Anoma

  Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is unobservable.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, E5, E52

• House Prices, Consumption and the Role of Non-Mortgage Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2013-2 Katya Kartashova, Ben Tomlin

  This paper examines the relationship between house prices and consumption, through the use of debt. Using unique Canadian household-level data that reports the uses of debt, we begin by looking at the relationship between house prices and debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): D, D1, D10, D14, D3, D31, E, E2, E21