Bio

Yang Zhang is the Senior Policy Director of the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) department, effective since October 2019. In this capacity, she leads efforts to develop and integrate state-of-the-art economic models for the analysis of the Canadian economy and for providing monetary policy advice. Her responsibilities include leading high-quality research that supports the renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. In this position, Ms. Zhang also collaborates closely with the academic and the international central banking communities. She is involved in the development of the next generation of Bank’s monetary policy models.

Ms. Zhang joined the Bank in 2007 as an Economist in the Canadian Projection & Policy Analysis Division of CEA. In this role she provided key inputs into the Staff Economic Projection, produced risk analyses as well as contributed to policy discussions. In 2009, she became a Senior Economist in the Model Development Division and held increasingly senior positions, recently as the Principal Economist of the team.

Ms. Zhang has deep knowledge and expertise in model development and monetary policy analysis. Her recent work focuses on modelling unconventional monetary policies and alternative expectation formations in DSGE models and the development of Agent-Based models. She also conducts research to support social good such as health and economic equality, using advanced computational methods including machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Born in China, Ms. Zhang holds a PhD in Economics from University of Ottawa.

Research Field(s): Macroeconomics Monetary Economics

Staff analytical notes

Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model

Staff Analytical Note 2024-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean Garry Junior Roc, Yang Zhang
We explore the drivers of the surge in inflation in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This work is part of a joint effort by 11 central banks using the model developed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to identify similarities and differences across economies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E37, E5, E52, E6

Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance

Staff Analytical Note 2022-13 Vivian Chu, Yang Zhang
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E5, E52, E58

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Staff discussion papers

The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang
We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang
We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58

The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-13 José Dorich, Rhys R. Mendes, Yang Zhang
Bank of Canada staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks in the lead-up to 2021 renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. This paper summarizes some interim results of model simulations from their research.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58

Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger
In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58

Inventories, Stockouts, and ToTEM

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-8 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang
Inventory investment is an important component of the Canadian business cycle. Despite its small average size – less than 1 per cent of output – it exhibits volatile procyclical fluctuations, accounting for almost one-third of output variance.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

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Staff working papers

Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals

Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7

CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model

Staff Working Paper 2022-51 Cars Hommes, Mario He, Sebastian Poledna, Melissa Siqueira, Yang Zhang
The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, D, D2, D22, D8, D83, E, E1, E17

Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks

Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang
Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

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Technical reports

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang
ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51

ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model

Technical Report No. 100 José Dorich, Michael K. Johnston, Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison, Yang Zhang
This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

August 18, 2011

Introducing Multiple Interest rates in ToTEM

Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 José Dorich, Rhys R. Mendes, Yang Zhang
This article describes changes to the structure of ToTEM—the Bank of Canada’s main model for projection and policy analysis—that allow an independent role for long-term interest rates, as well as for the risk spreads that lead to differences in the interest rates faced by households, firms and the government. These changes broaden the range of policy questions that the model can address and improve its ability to explain data. The authors use the model to simulate the effects of shocks to the risk spreads on interest rates similar to those that occurred during the recent financial crisis. They also use the model to assess the macroeconomic impact of higher requirements for bank capital and liquidity.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates

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Journal publications

Journal publications

Other research