Yang Zhang
Director
- Ph.D., University of Ottawa
- M.A., Wilfrid Laurier University
Bio
Yang Zhang is the Director of the Model Development Division of the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) department, effective since October 2019. In this capacity, she leads efforts to develop and integrate state-of-the-art economic models for the analysis of the Canadian economy and for providing monetary policy advice. Her responsibilities include leading high-quality research that supports the renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. In this position, Ms. Zhang also collaborates closely with the academic and the international central banking communities. She is involved in the development of the next generation of Bank’s monetary policy models.
Ms. Zhang joined the Bank in 2007 as an Economist in the Canadian Projection & Policy Analysis Division of CEA. In this role she provided key inputs into the Staff Economic Projection, produced risk analyses as well as contributed to policy discussions. In 2009, she became a Senior Economist in the Model Development Division and held increasingly senior positions, recently as the Principal Economist of the team.
Ms. Zhang has deep knowledge and expertise in model development and monetary policy analysis. Her recent work focuses on modelling unconventional monetary policies and alternative expectation formations in DSGE models and the development of Agent-Based models. She also conducts research to support social good such as health and economic equality, using advanced computational methods including machine learning and artificial intelligence.
Born in China, Ms. Zhang holds a PhD in Economics from University of Ottawa.
Staff analytical notes
Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance
A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.Staff discussion papers
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada
We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models.A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality
We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes.The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations
Bank of Canada staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks in the lead-up to 2021 renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. This paper summarizes some interim results of model simulations from their research.Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound
In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis.Inventories in ToTEM
ToTEM – the Bank of Canada’s principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy – is extended to include inventories. In the model, firms accumulate inventories of finished goods for their role in facilitating the demand for goods.Inventories, Stockouts, and ToTEM
Inventory investment is an important component of the Canadian business cycle. Despite its small average size – less than 1 per cent of output – it exhibits volatile procyclical fluctuations, accounting for almost one-third of output variance.Staff working papers
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model
The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis.Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks
Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account.Technical reports
ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis
ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model
This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada.Bank publications
Bank of Canada Review articles
August 18, 2011
Introducing Multiple Interest rates in ToTEM
This article describes changes to the structure of ToTEM—the Bank of Canada’s main model for projection and policy analysis—that allow an independent role for long-term interest rates, as well as for the risk spreads that lead to differences in the interest rates faced by households, firms and the government. These changes broaden the range of policy questions that the model can address and improve its ability to explain data. The authors use the model to simulate the effects of shocks to the risk spreads on interest rates similar to those that occurred during the recent financial crisis. They also use the model to assess the macroeconomic impact of higher requirements for bank capital and liquidity.Journal publications
Other research
- “COVI-AgentSim: an Agent-based Model for Evaluating Methods of Digital Contact Tracing”
(with Prateek Gupta et al.) - “Imperfect Asset Substitution in a Small Open Economy Model”
(with Jose Dorich and Rhys Mendes)