Bio

Thomas Pugh is a Senior Economist at the Bank of Canada, working within Financial Studies (FinStud) on heterogeneity in the wealth, income and consumption distributions as well as on entrepreneurship and self-employment. Tom holds a PhD in Economics from University College London.

Staff analytical notes

Impacts of interest rate hikes on the consumption of households with a mortgage

Staff Analytical Note 2024-14 Panagiotis Bouras, Joaquín Saldain, Xing Guo, Thomas Michael Pugh, Maria teNyenhuis
We assess how much the recent rate-hike cycle has and will affect mortgage borrowers' consumption through its impacts on mortgage payments. Our analysis provides insights into the effects of changes in monetary policy on the consumption of mortgage borrowers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D13, E, E2, E21, G, G5

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Staff discussion papers

Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-2 Felipe Alves, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Katya Kartashova, Soyoung Lee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See, Yaz Terajima, Alexander Ueberfeldt
The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D25, D3, D31, E, E2, E22, E24, E5, E50, E52

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Staff working papers

Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth

Staff Working Paper 2024-21 Giulio Fella, Martin B. Holm, Thomas Michael Pugh
We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Housing, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D12, D14, E, E2, E21

The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings

Staff Working Paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See
The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, G, G5, G51

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Journal publications

Refereed journals