Stephen S. Poloz

Former Governor (2013 - 2020)

Past Governors of the Bank

Read about past governors of the Bank of Canada since 1934 in the Bank's history section.

Bio

Stephen S. Poloz served as the 9th Governor of the Bank of Canada from June 3, 2013 to June 2, 2020.

Born in Oshawa, Ontario, Mr. Poloz graduated from Queen’s University in 1978 with a bachelor’s degree in economics. He received a master’s degree in economics in 1979 and a PhD in economics in 1982, both from the University of Western Ontario. In 2017, he was awarded an Honorary Doctor of Laws degree from Trent University.

Mr. Poloz first joined the Bank of Canada in 1981 and occupied a range of increasingly senior positions over a 14-year span, culminating in his appointment as Chief of the Bank’s Research Department in 1992. After his departure from the Bank in 1995, he spent four years at BCA Research, where he served as managing editor of its flagship publication, The International Bank Credit Analyst.

Mr. Poloz joined Export Development Canada (EDC) in 1999 as Vice-President and Chief Economist. From 2008 to 2010, he was Senior Vice-President, Financing, with responsibility for all of EDC’s lending programs. In January 2011, he was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of EDC, a position in which he served until his appointment as Governor of the Bank of Canada.

Mr. Poloz is a Certified International Trade Professional and a graduate of Columbia University’s Senior Executive Program. He has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C., and at the Economic Planning Agency in Tokyo, Japan. Mr. Poloz has taught economics at the University of Western Ontario, Concordia University and Queen’s School of Business. Since 2013, Mr. Poloz has been a member of the Lawrence Centre Advisory Council and he is a past president of the Ottawa Economics Association.

Speeches

May 26, 2020

Opening Statement before the Senate National Finance Committee

Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Senate National Finance Committee Ottawa, Ontario
Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I welcome the opportunity to appear before you to discuss the Bank of Canada’s actions in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Since the pandemic began, the Bank has had two goals in mind. In the short term, we have been working to help […]
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments
May 25, 2020

Monetary policy in unknowable times

Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Eric J. Hanson Memorial Lecture University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the evolution of the way the Bank takes a risk-management approach in the conduct of monetary policy, and what this implies for the recovery from the pandemic.
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
April 16, 2020

Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario
Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I welcome the opportunity to appear before you to discuss the Bank’s policy actions in response to the coronavirus pandemic, as well as our Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published yesterday. The Canadian economy is experiencing a significant and rapid contraction. The […]
Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments

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Staff discussion papers

Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz
In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6

The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-13 Stephen S. Poloz
In the Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture, Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how changing the mix of monetary and fiscal policies can yield the same outcomes for growth and inflation, but lead to different results for public sector and private sector debt levels, which can impact financial stability.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E63

Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2014-6 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, E, E3, E37, E5, E6, E61

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Staff working papers

The Commodity-Price Cycle and Regional Economic Performance in Canada

Staff Working Paper 1996-12 Mario Lefebvre, Stephen S. Poloz
This paper attempts to provide one interpretation of the broad regional economic history of Canada since the early 1970s. As the title of the paper suggests, we believe that, to a significant degree, regional diversity in economic performance reflects movements in Canada's terms of trade, which very frequently are tied to developments in world commodity markets.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

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Technical reports

Fiscal Policy and External Balance in the G-7 Countries

Technical Report No. 60 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper assesses evidence, from the G-7 countries, of a link between a country's fiscal policy and its external balance, often referred to as the "twin deficits" phenomenon. It begins by reviewing the stylized facts, and then examines the theoretical case for such a link.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, H, H6, H60

An Analysis of the Information Content of Alternative Monetary Aggregates

Technical Report No. 48 Doug Hostland, Stephen S. Poloz, Paul Storer
In this study the authors compare the information content of alternative monetary aggregates with respect to total spending in the economy, using data for Canada. The analysis considers 46 monetary measures, about half of which constitute conventional summation aggregates, while the remainder are superlative indices of monetary services based on the Fisher Ideal formula. The […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51

A Comparison of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes in a Small Dynamic Open-Economy Simulation Model

Technical Report No. 42 David Longworth, Stephen S. Poloz
In this paper, the simulation properties of a small, dynamic, open-economy IS-LM-Aggregate Supply model are examined under a variety of alternative policy rule assumptions. These assumptions include rigid money stock, exchange rate and nominal income targets, as well as less rigid policy rules that recognize information limitations. The model that is used consists of four […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

An Integrated Model of the Portfolio Behaviour of the Canadian Household Sector: 1968-1983

Technical Report No. 41 Stephen S. Poloz
An econometric model of the portfolio behaviour of the Canadian household sector is developed to study the linkages between demands for financial assets. The theoretical basis for the model is a version of the well-known Brainard-Tobin framework, which is extended to integrate the consumption-savings and portfolio-allocation decisions. This integration allows joint estimation of the real […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 9, 1994

The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Stephen S. Poloz, David Rose, Robert Tetlow
This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models

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