Bio

Russell Barnett was appointed Deputy Managing Director of the Bank’s Financial Stability Department (FSD), effective November 1, 2021. In this capacity, he contributes to the strategic direction and management of the department and oversees the Bank’s analyses and research on issues related to the financial sector in Canada and abroad as well as the assessment of risks to financial system stability and the oversight of systemically important payment clearing and settlement systems. 

Prior to this, Mr. Barnett was Deputy Managing Director of the Bank’s Canadian Economic Analysis Department (CEA), where he oversaw the Bank’s analysis of the Canadian economy and its research on monetary policy. He managed the Bank’s conjunctural analysis teams, the production of the staff economic outlook and the model development efforts of the department. He also actively contributed to the Bank’s communication of the Monetary Policy Report by presenting to a variety of audiences. In addition, he conducted analysis and research primarily focused on labour markets, economic forecasting, international trade and monetary policy. 

Mr. Barnett began his career at the Department of Finance before joining the Bank in 2005 as an economist in the Canadian Projection and Model Development Division. In this role, he developed the Bank’s modelling framework for estimating trend labour input that is still used in the Bank’s annual reassessment of potential output in Canada. After spending 3 years working at the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer as Director, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, he returned to the Bank in December 2011 as the Director of the United States Division in the International Economic Analysis Department. He subsequently became Policy Advisor in the same department and later Research Advisor in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. In both these roles, he led the respective departments’ contributions to the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and contributed to several research initiatives including the development of the Bank’s Canadian Effective Exchange Rates.

Born in Ottawa, Ontario, Mr. Barnett holds an M.A. in economics from the University of Victoria.

Staff analytical notes

A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment

Staff Analytical Note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E37

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Staff discussion papers

Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz
During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65, G, G1, G12

A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-1 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle
Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31

Decomposing Movements in U.S. Non-Energy Import Market Shares

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-5 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau
Country market shares of U.S. non-energy imports have changed considerably since 2002, with varying volatility across three subperiods: pre-crisis (2002–07), crisis (2007–09) and post-crisis (2009–14). In this paper, we analyze market shares for four main trading partners of the United States (Canada, Mexico, China and Japan).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, F4

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

August 15, 2013

Monitoring Short-Term Economic Developments in Foreign Economies

Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2013 Russell Barnett, Pierre Guérin
The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37
June 17, 2007

Trend Labour Supply in Canada: Implications of Demographic Shifts and the Increasing Labour Force Attachment of Women

Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Russell Barnett
While demographic change has been an ongoing process in Canada, labour market implications of an aging population will become more acute in coming years. This article discusses the anticipated slowing in the growth of trend labour input over the coming decades with the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and the stabilization of the labour force attachment of women. As the pool of labour shrinks, employers and governments will be looking for ways to address barriers to continued labour force participation and firms will have a greater incentive to find ways of improving labour productivity.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Potential output

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The Economy, Plain and Simple

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Journal publications