Bio

Kurt See is a Principal Researcher in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. His primary research interests include macroeconomics, labour economics, and public economics. Kurt See received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota.

Research Field(s): Labour Economics Macroeconomics Public Finance

Staff analytical notes

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update

Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu
We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health

Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting

Staff Analytical Note 2021-16 Robert Amano, Marc-André Gosselin, Kurt See
After a period with the interest rate at the effective lower bound, temporarily overshooting inflation may offer important economic benefits. This may be especially true for vulnerable segments of the population, such as workers with low attachment to the labour force and the long-term unemployed.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J2, J20

See More

Staff discussion papers

Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-2 Felipe Alves, Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Katya Kartashova, Soyoung Lee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See, Yaz Terajima, Alexander Ueberfeldt
The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D25, D3, D31, E, E2, E22, E24, E5, E50, E52

Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-15 Erik Ens, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
Measuring labour market slack is essential for central banks: without full employment in the economy, inflation will not stay close to target. We propose a comprehensive approach to assessing labour market slack that reflects the complexity and diversity of the labour market.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

See More

Staff working papers

The Heterogeneous Impacts of Job Displacement: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

Staff Working Paper 2023-55 Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park, Kurt See
When estimating earnings losses upon job separation, existing strategies focus on separations in mass layoffs to distinguish involuntary separations from voluntary separations. We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J3, J31, J6, J63, J65

Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64

Job Applications and Labour Market Flows

Staff Working Paper 2021-49 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J6, J63, J64

Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic

Staff Working Paper 2020-54 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See
We study the labour market and welfare effects of expanding unemployment insurance benefits and introducing payroll subsidies during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that both policies are complementary and are beneficial to different types of workers. Payroll subsidies preserve the employment of workers in highly productive jobs, while unemployment insurance replaces lost income for workers who experience inevitable job loss.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E62, J, J6, J64

The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings

Staff Working Paper 2020-51 James (Jim) C. MacGee, Thomas Michael Pugh, Kurt See
The impact of COVID-19 on Canadian households’ debt and unplanned savings varies by household income. Low-income and high-income households accrued unplanned savings, while middle-income households tended to accumulate more debt.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, G, G5, G51

How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J6, J64, J65

See More

Journal publications

Refereed Journals

“The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Canadian Household Consumption, Debt and Savings,” (with Jim MacGee and Thomas Pugh), Canadian Journal of Economics 55, no. S1 (2022): 54-87.

“Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic,” (with Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, and Yusuf Mercan), Journal of Public Economics 194, no. 104348 (2021).

“What Do Survey Data Tell Us about U.S. Businesses?,” (with Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, and Ellen McGrattan), American Economic Review: Insights 2, no. 4 (2020): 443-458.

 

Other

Work in progress

“Labor Market Responses to Unemployment Insurance: The Role of Heterogeneity” (with Serdar Birinci)

“Job Applications and Labor Market Flows” (with Serdar Birinci and Shu Lin Wee)

“Immigrant misallocation” (with Serdar Birinci and Fernando Leibovici)