Bio

Kun Mo is the Director of the Commodities Division in the International Economics Analysis Department. He is focused on performing current analysis on commodity market developments and providing forecasts and risk assessments for commodity prices. Kun also previously worked on monitoring and forecasting Chinese and other emerging market economies.  He obtained his Masters in Economics from the University of Toronto.

Staff analytical notes

Outlook for Electric Vehicles and Implications for the Oil Market

Staff Analytical Note 2019-19 Étienne Latulippe, Kun Mo
The market for electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly. Subsidies and technological improvements are expected to increase the market share of EVs over the coming decade. In its base-case scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects EV use to rise from 4 million vehicles in 2018 to 120 million by 2030, or from 0.3 per cent to over 7 per cent of the global car fleet.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q47

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986

Staff Analytical Note 2016-11 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Reinhard Ellwanger, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz
In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

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Staff discussion papers

Financial Constraints and Corporate Investment in China

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-22 Kun Mo, Michel Soudan
Financial constraints deter firms from pursuing optimal investment plans. In China, we find privately owned firms face greater financial constraints than state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This can be explained by our finding that lenders appear less concerned about the credit risk of SOEs, which causes distortions in the allocation of credit.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, G, G1, G3

Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky
Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02

The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15

The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky
The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 17, 2016

Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz
Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, Q, Q1, Q4, Q41

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The Economy, Plain and Simple

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