Justin-Damien Guénette
Director
- M.A., (Global Governance and Economics), University of Waterloo (2009)
- B.A., (Economics), University of Waterloo
Bio
Justin-Damien Guénette is the Director of the Overseas Economies Division in the International Department. Previously, he served as a Senior Economist in the Prospects Group of the World Bank where he was one of the lead authors of the flagship Global Economic Prospects report. He has also served in several other roles in the International Department during his time at the Bank, including Director of the International Model Development Division and principal economist in the United States Division. His work experience includes research and policy work on macroeconomic modelling, forecasting, emerging markets and energy commodities. Mr. Guénette holds a M.A. in Global Governance and Economics from the University of Waterloo.
Staff analytical notes
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions
In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.The Case of Serial Disappointment
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.Staff working papers
Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time
Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies.A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market
We examine the implications of increased unconventional crude oil production in North America. This production increase has been made possible by the existence of alternative oil-recovery technologies and persistently elevated oil prices that make these technologies commercially viable.Technical reports
IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.Bank publications
Bank of Canada Review articles
May 11, 2017
Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.Journal publications
- “Nowcasting the BRIC+M in Real Time”
(with Tatjana Dahlhaus and Garima Vasishtha), International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 33, Issue 4, October-December 2017, Pages 915-935. - “A Blessing in Disguise: The Implications of High Global Oil Prices for the North American Market”
(with Ron Alquist), Energy Policy, Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 49-57. - "Another legacy of the COVID-19 pandemic: Income divergence"
(with Amat Adarov and Franziska Ohnsorge), Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 44(4), pages 842-854, 2022.
Other
- "Price Controls : Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series 9212, The World Bank, 2020. - "Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic,"
(with Takefumi Yamazaki), Policy Research Working Paper Series 9589, The World Bank, 2021. - "Is a Global Recession Imminent?,"
(with Naotaka Sugawara), CEPR Discussion Papers 17566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, 2022. - “Implications of the War in Ukraine for the Global Economy,”
Policy Note, The World Bank, 2022.