John Murray

Former Deputy Governor (2008 - 2014)

Bio

John Murray served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada from January 2008 until his retirement from the Bank in April 2014. As a member of the Bank’s Governing Council, he shared responsibility for decisions with respect to monetary policy and financial system stability, and for setting the strategic direction of the Bank.

Born in Toronto, Mr. Murray received a bachelor of commerce degree from Queen’s University in 1971, as well as an MA in economics and a PhD in economics from Princeton University in 1974 and 1977, respectively.

After completing his PhD, Mr. Murray taught at the University of British Columbia as an assistant professor and at the University of North Carolina as a visiting assistant professor. From 1985 to 1986, he also lectured at Princeton University.

Mr. Murray joined the Bank of Canada in 1980 as a Senior Economist with the Monetary and Financial Analysis Department. In 1981, he was promoted to the position of Research Officer, and in 1982, he became Assistant Chief of the department. He served as Research Adviser in the Monetary and Financial Analysis and International departments from 1984 to 1987. In 1987, he was appointed Deputy Chief of the International Department, and in 1990, Chief. Mr. Murray became an Adviser to the Governor in January 2000.

Speeches

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Staff working papers

The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar

Staff Working Paper 2006-29 Ramzi Issa, Robert Lafrance, John Murray
The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Why Canada Needs a Flexible Exchange Rate

Staff Working Paper 1999-12 John Murray
This paper explores the arguments for and against a common currency for Canada and the United States and attempts to determine whether such an arrangement would offer any significant advantages for Canada compared with the present flexible exchange rate system. The paper first reviews the theoretical arguments advanced in the economics literature in support of fixed and flexible currency arrangements. A discussion of Canada's past experience with the two exchange rate systems follows, after which there is a survey of the empirical evidence published on Canada's current and prospective suitability for some form of fixed currency arrangement with the United States. The final section of the paper examines critically a number of concerns raised about the behaviour of the current flexible exchange rate system.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

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Technical reports

International Financial Crises and Flexible Exchange Rates: Some Policy Lessons from Canada

Technical Report No. 88 John Murray, Mark Zelmer, Zahir Antia
This paper examines the behaviour of the Canadian dollar from 1997 to 1999 to see if there is any evidence of excess volatility or significant overshooting. A small econometric model of the exchange rate, based on market fundamentals, is presented and used to make tentative judgments about the extent to which the currency might have been systematically over- or undervalued.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Measuring the Profitability and Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Some Canadian Evidence

Technical Report No. 53 John Murray, Mark Zelmer, Shane Williamson
When the major industrial countries decided to move to a system of managed flexible exchange rates following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, many observers thought that this would reduce, if not eliminate, the need for official foreign exchange market intervention. During the past fifteen years, however, intervention in most countries, including Canada, has […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14

International Interest Rate Linkages and Monetary Policy: A Canadian Perspective

Technical Report No. 52 John Murray, Ritha Khemani
This paper examines the implications of increased international capital mobility and asset substitutability for domestic monetary policy in a small open economy such as Canada. Alternative definitions of international financial market integration are presented and tested in the context of two popular macro models. In the main, results suggest that interest rate relationships in Canada […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, F, F3, F33

A VAR Analysis of Economic Interdependence: Canada, the United States, and the Rest of the World

Technical Report No. 46 John Kuszczak, John Murray
The authors use vector autoregression (VAR) modelling techniques to examine the response of the domestic economy to foreign influences and to quantify some of the concepts and relationships relating to economic interdependence. Particular attention is given to the dynamic behaviour and interactions of the U.S. and Canadian economies over the past twenty years. Extensive empirical […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F15, F4, F41

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 14, 2013

Monetary Policy Decision Making at the Bank of Canada

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 John Murray
The process that the Bank of Canada follows to make its monetary policy decisions has evolved over time. This process is very information-intensive and collaborative, drawing on the expertise, judgment and analysis of many people. This article describes monetary policy decision making at the Bank, and discusses some common misconceptions about monetary policy and the process.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
November 19, 2010

Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined? Some Recent Insights from the Literature

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Jeannine Bailliu, Wei Dong, John Murray
Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework
December 15, 2007

Introduction: Recent Research on Inflation Targeting

Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 John Murray
The inflation targeting framework that Canada introduced in 1991 has played a significant role in the exceptional economic performance that the country has experienced in recent years. Understanding the factors that have contributed to the success of the current inflation-targeting framework, and investigating the various ways in which it might be improved in the future, are an important part of the Bank of Canada's medium-term research program.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
August 21, 2003

Dollarization in Canada: An Update

Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2003 John Murray, James Powell, Louis-Robert Lafleur
The authors describe a special survey of the payment and financial-reporting practices of Canadian firms conducted by the Bank of Canada's regional offices to determine if the U.S. dollar has started to displace the Canadian dollar as a preferred unit of account. A cross-section of firms was asked what currency (or currencies) they used: (i) for quoting sales to Canadian customers, (ii) for quoting prices to foreigners, (iii) for reporting their financial results, and (iv) for quoting salaries and wages. The survey results reported here extend some earlier results reported in a previous Review article by Murray and Powell. The data indicate that, despite the dominance of the U.S. dollar in world trade and as an international standard of value, use of the U.S. dollar in Canada is very limited. The vast majority of Canadian firms price their products and keep their financial statements in Canadian dollars, and very few workers in Canada have their salaries paid in a foreign currency. The Canadian dollar is still strongly preferred for most pricing and financial-reporting activities in Canada, and there is very little evidence of "dollarization."
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes
December 21, 2002

Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Jeannine Bailliu, John Murray
A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes
November 21, 2002

Is Canada Dollarized?

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2002 John Murray, James Powell
The sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the successful launch of the euro have sparked a lively debate in Canada about the possible benefits of formally adopting the U.S. dollar as our national currency. Some observers have suggested that this debate is largely irrelevant, since Canada is already highly "dollarized." Canadian businesses and households, they assert, often use the U.S. dollar to perform standard money functions in preference to their own currency. Very little evidence has been provided, however, to support these claims. The authors review the available data with a view to drawing some tentative conclusions about the extent to which Canada has already been informally dollarized. The evidence suggests that many of the concerns that have been expressed about the imminent demise of the Canadian dollar have been misplaced. The Canadian dollar continues to be used as the principal unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value within our borders. Moreover, there is no indication that dollarization is likely to take hold in the foreseeable future. Indeed, in many respects, the Canadian economy is less dollarized now than it was 20 years ago.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes

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