Bio

Joel Wagner is a Senior Economist in the Model Development Division of the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) Department at the Bank of Canada. His current research interests include macroeconomics, with a specific focus on how technology and innovation drive both business cycle volatility and economic growth. At the bank of Canada, he has been involved in understanding the impact downward nominal wage rigidity has on a workers wage-setting decision. Future research will continue along this path as well as focus on the impact innovations in financial technology have on banking sector.

Research Field(s): Monetary and Fiscal Policy Monetary Economics Technological Change

Staff discussion papers

A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang
We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58

Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger
In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58

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Staff working papers

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence Against a “Greasing Effect”

Staff Working Paper 2017-31 Joel Wagner
The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52

Anticipated Technology Shocks: A Re‐Evaluation Using Cointegrated Technologies

Staff Working Paper 2017-11 Joel Wagner
Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

The Endogenous Relative Price of Investment

Staff Working Paper 2015-30 Joel Wagner
This paper takes a full-information model-based approach to evaluate the link between investment-specific technology and the inverse of the relative price of investment. The two-sector model presented includes monopolistic competition where firms can vary the markup charged on their product depending on the number of firms competing.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, L, L1, L11, L16

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • “Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles”, 
    (with Marc-André Letendre )  Macroeconomic Dynamics.
  • “Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: Evidence Against a Greasing Effect”
    Canadian Journal of economics, Forthcoming.