Bio

Jean-Philippe Cayen was appointed Senior Policy Advisor in the International Economic Analysis Department in December 2018. In this capacity, he is part of the leadership team that guides and manages the work of the department. He leads the department’s contribution to the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report and conducts analysis and research on current issues affecting the international economy. His primary interests include economic forecasting and business cycle analysis.

Mr. Cayen started his career at the Bank in 2000 as an economist in the Monetary and Financial Analysis Department. He has held several positions at the Bank over the years, including Director of the United States Division and Director of the Projection Division in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. He holds a master's degree in applied economics from HEC Montréal.

Staff analytical notes

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

Staff Analytical Note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

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Staff discussion papers

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Staff working papers

What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates

Staff Working Paper 2010-5 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Donald Coletti, René Lalonde, Philipp Maier
We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31

Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting

Staff Working Paper 2009-35 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E5, E52

La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • “The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates”,
    (with Simon van Norden), The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 373-393, 2005.