Staff working papers
The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies
This paper analyzes the implications of the global financial cycle for conventional and unconventional monetary policies and macroprudential policy in small, open economies such as Canada. The paper starts by summarizing recent work on financial cycles and their growing correlation across borders.International House Price Cycles, Monetary Policy and Risk Premiums
Using a panel logit framework, the paper provides an estimate of the likelihood of a house price correction in 18 OECD countries. The analysis shows that a simple measure of the degree of house price overvaluation contains a lot of information about subsequent price reversals.What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?
Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks
We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate.Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility
We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns.The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets
Existing studies using low-frequency data show that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation.International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach
The authors model trading by foreign and domestic investors in developed-country equity markets.Bank publications
Bank of Canada Review articles
August 16, 2012
Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool.
December 18, 2006