Bio

Farrukh Suvankulov is a Regional Director (Economics) in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. His primary research fields are energy economics, international trade and applied econometrics. Mr. Suvankulov holds a PhD in policy analysis (economics) from the RAND Graduate School as well as a Master of Arts degree in economics from Yale University.

Research Field(s): Business Surveys International Trade and Finance Resource and Energy Economics

Staff analytical notes

Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size

Staff Analytical Note 2021-14 Chris D'Souza, James Fudurich, Farrukh Suvankulov
Firms with fewer than 100 workers employ about 65 percent of the total labour force in Canada. An online survey experiment was conducted with firms of this size in Canada in 2018–19. We compare the responses of small and micro firms to explore how their characteristics and economic outlooks relate to their size.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models

Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov
This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47

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Staff discussion papers

Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov
What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

The Business Leaders’ Pulse—An Online Business Survey

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-14 Tony Chernis, Chris D'Souza, Kevin MacLean, Tasha Reader, Joshua Slive, Farrukh Suvankulov
This paper introduces the Business Leaders’ Pulse, a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making by asking firms about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

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Staff working papers

Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces

Staff Working Paper 2015-28 Farrukh Suvankulov
A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with U.S. states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G 20 using more recent data from 2001–10.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F15

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Journal publications

Other publications

  • "Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces"
    The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Volume 25, Issue 8, p. 1045-1070, 2016.
  • "Price regulation and relative price convergence: Evidence from the retail gasoline market in Canada"
    (with M. Lau and F. Ogucu), 2012, Energy Policy, 40, p. 325-334.
  • "Some cautions on the use of nonlinear panel unit root tests: evidence from a modified series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test"
    (with Lau, M., Y. Su and F.Chau), 2012, Economic modelling , 29 (3), p. 810-816.
  • "Have firms with better corporate governance fared better during the recent financial crisis in Russia?"
    (with F. Ogucu), 2012, Applied Economics Letters, 19 (8), p. 769-773.