Bio

Claudia is the Director of the Projection division in the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) Department’s Projection Division. Her work focuses on the forecast of the Canadian economy. Claudia also worked in the emerging market division of the International Department between 2008 and 2013. Her main areas of interest include macroeconomic, forecasting and international topics.

Claudia holds a master’s degree in economics from Laval University.

Staff analytical notes

What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-25 Dany Brouillette, José Dorich, Chris D'Souza, Adrienne Gagnon, Claudia Godbout
This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F1, F10, F14, F17

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Staff discussion papers

Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-3 Claudia Godbout, Jocelyn Jacob
The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as in the world economy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47

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Staff working papers

Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models

Staff Working Paper 2012-7 Claudia Godbout, Marco J. Lombardi
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

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Technical reports

IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

May 17, 2012

On the Adjustment of the Global Economy

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Carlos De Resende, Claudia Godbout, René Lalonde, Eric Morin, Nikita Perevalov
This article discusses three scenarios for the adjustment of the global economy. In a “baseline” scenario—which encompasses fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, growth-friendly structural reforms in Europe and Japan, and greater exchange rate flexibility and reforms in the emerging-market economies of Asia to induce rotation of demand away from net exports—global current account imbalances […]
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Fiscal policy, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F37, F4, F42

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