Bio

Christopher Hajzler is the director of the Canadian Economic Studies Division at the Bank of Canada, where his team is responsible for analyzing long term labour market trends and Canadian potential output growth. His primary research interests include the study of the effects of political risk on international capital flows, expropriation of foreign direct investments, and Law-of-One-Price deviations within and across countries. Prior to joining the Bank of Canada in 2014, he obtained a PhD in Economics from the University of Western Ontario, and was Assistant Professor at the University of Otago, New Zealand.

Research Field(s): Growth and Development International Macroeconomics Macroeconomics

Staff analytical notes

Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

Staff Analytical Note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan
We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019

Staff Analytical Note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

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Staff discussion papers

Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52

2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov
This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

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Staff working papers

Expropriation Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Does Return of Capital Dominate Return on Capital?

Staff Working Paper 2017-9 M. Akhtaruzzaman, Nathan Berg, Christopher Hajzler
Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, F, F2, F21, F23

Price-Level Dispersion versus Inflation-Rate Dispersion: Evidence from Three Countries

Staff Working Paper 2017-3 David Fielding, Christopher Hajzler, James (Jim) C. MacGee
Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50

Government Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment Under the Threat of Expropriation

Staff Working Paper 2016-13 Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Rosborough
Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F23, F3, F34

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 17, 2016

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Jeannine Bailliu, Christopher Hajzler
Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E6, E61, E65, O, O1, O11, O4, O41

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?,"
    (with M. Akhtaruzzaman & N. Berg), European Journal of Political Economy. (Forthcoming.)
  • "Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?,"
    (with M. Akhtaruzzaman & D. Owen), Applied Economics. (Forthcoming.)
  • "Distance, Language, Religion, and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Canada and Nigeria,"
    (with D. Fielding& J. MacGee), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 47(5): 1007–1029, 2016.
  • "Relative Price and Inflation Variability in a Simple Consumer Search Model,"
    (with D. Fielding), Economics Letters, 123 (1): 17–22, 2014.
  • "Resource-Based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies," Journal of International Economics, 92 (1): 124–146, 2014.
  • "Expropriation of Foreign Direct Investments: Sectoral Patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 148(1): 119–149, 2012.