Alexander Ueberfeldt
Senior Policy Director
- PhD (Economics), University of Minnesota (2005)
- Diploma (Volkswirtschaftslehre / Economics), University of Bielefeld (2000)
- MA (Economics), Purdue University (1999)
Bio
Alexander Ueberfeldt is a Senior Policy Director in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. As a member of the senior leadership team, he helps to oversee the Bank's analysis of the Canadian economy and its research on monetary policy. He also leads the efforts to better understand how structural changes affect the Canadian economy. Prior to this, he was the Senior Managing Research Advisor leading the Heterogeneity Laboratory at the Bank of Canada.
An applied macroeconomist, Alexander’s research recently focused on the interaction of monetary policy and household heterogeneity as well as financial stability. In addition, he has contributed to the understanding of price-level targeting, the risk-taking channel of monetary policy and long-run trends in macro-labour economics. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota.
Staff analytical notes
How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework
Financial system vulnerabilities increase the downside risk to future GDP growth. Macroprudential tightening significantly reduces financial stability risks associated with vulnerabilities. Monetary policy faces a trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic risks.Staff discussion papers
Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy: A Thematic Review
The theory that rich economic diversity of businesses and households both affects and is shaped by economy-wide fluctuations has strong implications for monetary policy. This review places these insights in a Canadian context.Staff working papers
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving?
Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight.Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution
Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution
Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.Managing GDP Tail Risk
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.Monetary Policy Tradeoffs Between Financial Stability and Price Stability
We analyze the impact of interest rate policy on financial stability in an environment where banks can experience runs on their short-term liabilities, forcing them to sell assets at fire-sale prices.Managing Risk Taking with Interest Rate Policy and Macroprudential Regulations
We develop a model in which a financial intermediary’s investment in risky assets—risk taking—is excessive due to limited liability and deposit insurance and characterize the policy tools that implement efficient risk taking.Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?
Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt.Do Low Interest Rates Sow the Seeds of Financial Crises?
A view advanced in the aftermath of the late-2000s financial crisis is that lower than optimal interest rates lead to excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries.Trends in U.S. Hours and the Labor Wedge
From 1980 until 2007, U.S. average hours worked increased by thirteen percent, due to a large increase in female hours. At the same time, the U.S. labor wedge, measured as the discrepancy between a representative household's marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure and the marginal product of labor, declined substantially.Price Level Targeting: What Is the Right Price?
Various papers have suggested that Price-Level targeting is a welfare improving policy relative to Inflation targeting. From a practical standpoint, this raises an important yet unanswered question: What is the optimal price index to target?Bank publications
Financial System Review articles
November 28, 2017
Analysis of Household Vulnerabilities Using Loan-Level Mortgage Data
This report examines detailed data on home mortgages to provide a better understanding of the vulnerabilities associated with the mortgage market. The proportion of low-ratio mortgages is growing, particularly in regions with strong house price growth. Moreover, these borrowers exhibit less flexibility to adverse shocks, since they have high debt levels relative to income and have taken mortgages with long amortization periods.Journal publications
Refereed journals
- “Collateralized borrowing and risk taking at low interest rates,”
(with Simona E. Cociuba and Malik Shukayev), European Economic Review, Elsevier, 2016, vol. 85(C), pages 62-83. - “Heterogeneity and long-run changes in aggregate hours and the labor wedge,”
(with Simona E. Cociuba), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, 2015, vol. 52(C), pages 75-95. - “Optimal monetary policy under incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty: A long-run perspective,”
(with Oleksiy Kryvtsov and Malik Shukayev), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1045-1060, July 2011. - “Managing risk taking with interest rate policy and macroprudential regulations,”
(with Simona Cociuba and Malik Shukayev), Economic Inquiry, vol. 57(2), pages 1056-1081, April 2019. - “US hours at work,”
(with Simona E. Cociuba and Edward C. Prescott), Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 87-90, 2018. - “Monetary policy trade-offs between financial stability and price stability,”
(with Malik Shukayev), Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 901-945, August 2018.
Other Publications
- “Analysis of Household Vulnerabilities Using Loan-Level Mortgage Data,”
(with Olga Bilyk and Yang Xu), Bank of Canada Financial System Review - November 2017