March 30, 2013
Posts
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Inventories in ToTEM
ToTEM – the Bank of Canada’s principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy – is extended to include inventories. In the model, firms accumulate inventories of finished goods for their role in facilitating the demand for goods. -
June 21, 2007
Global Integration, Monetary Policy, and the International Monetary System
Now, Manitoba – right in the middle of our vast country – might seem an odd place to talk about globalization. But this province, like the rest of Canada, is very much affected by global economic forces. -
May 17, 1996
The Transmission of Monetary Policy
Text of major 1995 lecture by Bank Governor Gordon Thiessen, plus articles from Bank of Canada Review and other sources
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Welfare Effects of Commodity Price and Exchange Rate Volatilities in a Multi-Sector Small Open Economy Model
This paper develops a multi-sector New Keynesian model of a small open economy that includes commodity, manufacturing, non-tradable, and import sectors. Price and wage rigidities are sector specific, modelled à la Calvo-Yun style contracts. -
June 26, 2013
Shedding Light on Shadow Banking
Deputy Governor Tim Lane will discuss the importance of shadow banking, its fragilities, and reform efforts underway to make it more resilient. -
Resurrecting the Role of Real Money Balance Effects
I present a structural econometric analysis supporting the hypothesis that money is still relevant for shaping inflation and output dynamics in the United States. In particular, I find that real money balance effects are quantitatively important, although smaller than they used to be in the early postwar period. -
June 21, 2006
Global Economic Forces and the Need for Adjustment
Since the start of the millennium, developments in the global economy have led to important changes throughout the Canadian economy and to serious challenges for many sectors and regions. Because nobody can anticipate precisely how the world will unfold, the best we can do is to ensure that our economy is as flexible as possible. -
The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy
This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and thus the impact of oil price uncertainty can be examined in a more flexible yet tractable way. -
June 30, 2023
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023
Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers, and along with elevated interest rates, continues to constrain most households’ spending. Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect significantly higher payments are likely to plan spending cuts. Some households though are starting to think the worst is behind them. Consumer confidence about the future of the economy has improved alongside their lower inflation expectations. Expected lower interest rates and strong immigration, which boosts housing demand, are behind consumers’ view that housing market will increase over the next year. Workers remain confident about jobs.