Staff research, Publications
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April 18, 2018
Monetary Policy Report – April 2018
The Bank’s new forecast calls for economic growth of 2.0 percent this year, 2.1 per cent in 2019 and 1.8 per cent in 2020. -
Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment
This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. -
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. -
Personal Experiences and House Price Expectations: Evidence from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
In this work, we use novel Canadian survey data to study how expectations of future changes in house prices are influenced by personal experiences. We find that recently experienced changes in local house prices are routinely extrapolated into expectations of year-ahead changes in national house prices. -
April 9, 2018
Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2018
Results of the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to be positive, supported by healthy sales prospects. Due to recent strong demand, capacity and labour pressures are evident in most regions. -
April 9, 2018
Senior Loan Officer Survey - First Quarter of 2018
This quarter, the Bank will begin reporting on both household and business lending conditions in our expanded Senior Loan Officer Survey. Overall, household lending conditions tightened in the first quarter of 2018, driven by mortgage-related lending, while business lending conditions eased slightly. -
Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?
Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. -
Order Flow Segmentation, Liquidity and Price Discovery: The Role of Latency Delays
Latency delays—known as “speed bumps”—are an intentional slowing of order flow by exchanges. Supporters contend that delays protect market makers from high-frequency arbitrage, while opponents warn that delays promote “quote fading” by market makers. We construct a model of informed trading in a fragmented market, where one market operates a conventional order book and the other imposes a latency delay on market orders. -
March 31, 2018
Research Update - March 2018
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.