Staff research, Publications
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Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects
Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. -
April 30, 2019
Research Update - April 2019
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
Financial Distress and Hedging: Evidence from Canadian Oil Firms
The paper explores the link between financial distress and the commodity price hedging behaviour of Canadian oil firms. -
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April 24, 2019
Monetary Policy Report – April 2019
The Bank’s new forecast calls for real economic growth of 1.2 per cent this year, 2.1 per cent next year and 2.0 per cent in 2021. -
Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales
We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period. -
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting. -
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase. -
April 15, 2019
Business Outlook Survey—Spring 2019
Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey point to a moderation from previously high levels of domestic and foreign demand for firms in most regions. Investment and employment intentions remain positive.