Staff research, Publications
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Characterizing Breadth in Canadian Economic Activity
Real growth in gross domestic product tends to be meaningfully higher when a large share of industries and demand components are growing—that is, when growth is broad across many fronts. -
January 31, 2020
Research Update - January 2020
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
Managing GDP Tail Risk
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. -
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound
This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available. -
January 22, 2020
Monetary Policy Report – January 2020
The Bank projects that growth in the Canadian economy will accelerate from 1.6 percent this year to 2 percent in 2021. -
January 13, 2020
Business Outlook Survey—Winter 2019–20
Results from the winter Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment is broadly positive except in the Prairies, where indicators remain weak. In aggregate, firms’ outlook is supported by expectations of healthy domestic and foreign sales. -
January 13, 2020
Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2019
Survey results suggest that consumers’ inflation expectations declined slightly in the fourth quarter of 2019. Consumers’ expectations for their wage growth were largely the same as in the previous survey. Consumer expectations for house price growth went up somewhat in Canada. -
Contagion in Dealer Networks
Dealers connect investors who want to buy or sell securities in financial markets. Over time, dealers and investors form trading networks to save time and resources. An emerging field of research investigates how networks form. -
December 31, 2019
Research Update - December 2019
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.