Staff research, Publications
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Is Central Bank Currency Fundamental to the Monetary System?
In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system. -
May 6, 2020
Annual Report 2019
The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2019. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Stephen S. Poloz. -
April 30, 2020
Research Update - April 2020
This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. -
A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices
A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default. -
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields
This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations. -
Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI). -
Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel
Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms. -
April 15, 2020
Monetary Policy Report – April 2020
Canada’s economy faces two significant shocks—the plunge in global oil prices and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. -
April 6, 2020
Business Outlook Survey—Spring 2020
Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment had softened in most regions even before concerns around COVID‑19 intensified in Canada. Confidence deteriorated the most among firms in energy-producing regions.