Posts

• August 21, 2002

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2002

  

  Cover page

  Welland Canal Note

  The note, signed by Merritt as company president, measures 184 mm by 82 mm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

  Photography by James Zagon, Ottawa.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• August 20, 2002

  Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2002 Tiff Macklem

  This article outlines one of the Bank's key approaches to dealing with the uncertainty that surrounds decisions on monetary policy: the consideration of a wide range of information from a variety of sources. More specifically, it describes the information and analysis that the monetary policy decision-makers—the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada—receive in the two or three weeks leading up to a decision on the setting of the policy rate—the target overnight interest rate. The article also describes how the Governing Council reaches this decision.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation
• August 19, 2002

  Models in Policy-Making

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2002 Donald Coletti, Stephen Murchison

  This article examines another strategy in the Bank's approach to dealing with an uncertain world: the use of carefully articulated models to produce economic forecasts and to examine the implications of the various risks to those forecasts. Economic models are deliberate simplifications of a complex world that allow economists to make predictions that are reasonably accurate and that can be easily understood and communicated. By using several models, based on competing paradigms, the Bank minimizes policy errors that could result from relying on one view of the world and one philosophy of model design. The authors review some of the models currently used at the Bank, as well as the role of judgment in the projection process.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models
• August 18, 2002

  The Role of Simple Rules in the Conduct of Canadian Monetary Policy

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2002 Denise Côté, Jean-Paul Lam, Ying Liu, Pierre St-Amant

  The third strategy employed by the Bank when dealing with uncertainty is the consideration of appropriate simple reaction functions or "rules" for the setting of the policy interest rate. Since John Taylor's presentation of his much-discussed rule, research on simple policy rules has exploded. Simple rules have several advantages. In particular, they are easy to construct and communicate and are believed by some to be robust, in the sense of generating good results in a variety of economic models. This article provides an overview of the recent research regarding the usefulness and robustness of simple monetary policy rules, particularly in models of the Canadian economy. It also describes and explains the role of simple rules in the conduct of monetary policy in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty
• August 15, 2002

  Operational Enhancements to Government of Canada Debt Programs

  The government conducts regular consultations with market participants to support its strategic objectives of raising stable, low-cost funding and maintaining a well-functioning market for Government of Canada securities.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
• August 15, 2002

  Operational Enhancements to Government Debt Programs

  The Government of Canada plans to open a new benchmark issue at the next 10-year auction.

• The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2002-22 Brigitte Desroches, Marc-André Gosselin

  This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E27

• Entrepreneurial Risk, Credit Constraints, and the Corporate Income Tax: A Quantitative Exploration

  Staff Working Paper 2002-21 Césaire Meh

  This paper describes the positive effect that corporate income tax has on capital formation in the presence of liquidity constraints and uninsurable risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E6, E62, H, H2, H20, H23

• Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation

  Staff Working Paper 2002-20 Robert Amano, Kim McPhail, Hope Pioro, Andrew Rennison

  This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17, E3, E30, E37

• The Financial Services Sector: An Update on Recent Developments

  Technical Report No. 91 Charles Freedman, Clyde Goodlet

  The Canadian financial industry continues to experience significant changes. This report provides an update on recent developments and re-examines a number of issues facing financial service providers that were identified in Technical Report No. 82.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): G, G2