April 12, 2011
Posts
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Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). -
April 4, 2011
Senior Loan Officer Survey - First-Quarter 2011
The survey results point to an overall net easing in business-lending conditions. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the first quarter. Note that the balance of opinion indicates only the direction of the change in lending conditions; it does not provide information on the magnitude of the change. -
April 4, 2011
Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2011
Businesses remain positive about the economic outlook, although some forward-looking indicators have eased from the levels recorded in recent surveys, and the strength in commodity prices has raised expectations for costs and inflation.
Erratum: Please note that the legend for Chart 9 (French version only) should read as follows: au-dessus de 3 % , rather than au-dessous de 3 %
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Sovereign Default Risk Premia, Fiscal Limits and Fiscal Policy
We develop a closed economy model to study the interactions among sovereign risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy. The stochastic fiscal limits, which measure the ability and willingness of the government to service its debt, arise endogenously from a dynamic Laffer curve. -
March 30, 2011
Bank of Canada Announces Recipients of 2011 Fellowship and Governor’s Awards
The Bank of Canada today announced that Professors Randall K. Morck of the University of Alberta and Gregor W. Smith of Queen’s University are the recipients of the Bank’s Fellowship Award for 2011. -
March 28, 2011
The “Great” Recession in Canada: Perception vs. Reality
Barely three years ago, the financial crisis was a source of major concern worldwide. This unprecedented event had serious and costly repercussions, which we continue to feel today. -
March 26, 2011
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney discusses Challenges Posed by Globalization, Proposes Global Code of Conduct for Capital Flows
Speaking at the Annual Meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney called on global policymakers to work towards renewing the “rules of the game” of the international monetary system, while implementing short-term measures, such as a code of conduct for capital flows, to improve the functioning of the current system. -
March 26, 2011
The Paradigm Shifts: Global Imbalances, Policy, and Latin America
Globalization is the opportunity and the challenge of our age. It has the potential to lift billions out of poverty, vastly expand economic prospects, and develop a more diverse and resilient global economy. -
March 22, 2011
Summary of Comments - 2011-12 Debt Management Strategy Consultations
The Summary of Comments - 2011-12 Debt Management Strategy Consultations is being published on the Bank of Canada's website in conjunction with the release of the government's Debt Management Strategy for 2011-12 on the Department of Finance's website.