Posts

• April 1, 2024

  The Bank of Canada releases the first quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, April 1, 2024, the Bank of Canada will release the first quarter issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• April 1, 2024

  Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2024

  Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• April 1, 2024

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2024

  Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Sticky inflation expectations may be due to elevated uncertainty about near-term inflation and still-high expectations for interest rates and rent costs over the next 12 months. Long-term inflation expectations have increased from low levels. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think domestic factors supporting high inflation, such as high government spending and elevated housing costs, will take longer to resolve. High inflation and high interest rates continue to impact household budgets and spending decisions, but consumers are less pessimistic about the economic outlook. After easing for several quarters, perceptions of the labour market have stabilized, and high inflation expectations continue to support stronger-than-average expectations for wage growth.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

• Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-5 Nicolas Bédard, Patrick Sabourin

  We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G5, H, H3
• March 31, 2024

  Quarterly Research Update – 2024 Q1

  This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32
• March 26, 2024

  Speech by Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada

  On Tuesday, March 26, 2024, Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Halifax Partnership.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• March 26, 2024

  Time to break the glass: Fixing Canada’s productivity problem

  Remarks Carolyn Rogers Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers explains how higher productivity can protect the economy from future bouts of inflation and why fixing Canada's productivity problem should be a priority for all Canadians.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity
• March 26, 2024

  The productivity problem

  Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about some of the reasons for Canada’s poor productivity track record, and what we can do to turn the tide.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity

• COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-2 Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera, Liang Wang, Joy Wu

  The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2