Staff research, Publications
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Does Micro Evidence Support the Wage Phillips Curve in Canada?
The existing macroeconometric evidence lends support to the wage Phillips curve by showing a negative relation between the rate of change in wages and the unemployment rate, conditional on lagged price inflation. Most theoretical models of wage setting, however, generate a "wage curve," described by a negative relation between the level of the real wage and unemployment. -
January 23, 2002
Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2002
In the November Monetary Policy Report, the timing and extent of the recovery in economic activity in Canada this year was seen as depending crucially on geopolitical developments and on how quickly consumer and business confidence would return to normal. -
January 18, 2002
Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2001–2002
Cover page
Byzantine 40-Nummi Piece
The 40-nummi piece was the largest and heaviest copper coin minted under Justinian. About the size of an old Canadian silver dollar, it weighs 22.76 grams. It was struck in Constantinople (now Istanbul), the capital of the Byzantine Empire and is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
Photography by James Zagon, Ottawa.
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An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists
Wavelets are mathematical expansions that transform data from the time domain into different layers of frequency levels. Compared to standard Fourier analysis, they have the advantage of being localized both in time and in the frequency domain, and enable the researcher to observe and analyze data at different scales. -
Asset Allocation Using Extreme Value Theory
This paper examines asset allocation strategies in an extreme value at risk (VaR) framework in which the risk measure is the p-quantile from the extreme value distribution. The main focus is on the allocation problem faced by an extremely risk-averse institution, such as a central bank. -
Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model
In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in Taylor-type rules. Evidence in the literature suggests that Taylor-type rules are optimal in a number of models and are fairly robust across different models. -
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December 18, 2001
The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds
Over the past year and a half, authors Andy Haldane of the Bank of England and Mark Kruger of the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties in a way that deals with the crisis and preserves the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules. It attempts to be clear about the respective roles and responsibilities of the public and private sectors. A central element in shaping private sector expectations is knowledge that the official sector will behave predictably. Constraints on lending by the International Monetary Fund are a key step in that direction. They ensure that private sector involvement is a crucial part of crisis resolution, and they help encourage debtors and creditors to seek co-operative solutions to a crisis. Characterized by constraints, clarity, and orderliness, the framework has the potential to reduce the incidence and cost of financial crises. -
December 17, 2001
The Canadian Fixed-Income Market: Recent Developments and Outlook
The Canadian fixed-income market is in the midst of a structural transformation similar to those occurring in other national financial markets around the world. The authors examine recent developments and trends in the market and discuss their possible effects. The simultaneous shrinking of the federal government's financial requirements and steady rise in issues of corporate securities have significantly altered the composition of Canada's fixed-income market. Government of Canada securities constitute a predominant portion of outstanding fixed-income securities and play a pivotal role, serving as benchmarks for the valuation of other traded securities and as a hedging vehicle for market participants trying to control their exposure to risk. The reduced issuance of federal government securities has contributed to a decline in the liquidity of the benchmark market. This raises broader issues regarding the future of the Canadian fixed-income market, since the corporate market is still fairly underdeveloped and illiquid compared with that for Government of Canada issues. There are thus currently few benchmark and hedging alternatives. The federal government is, however, committed to preserving the integrity of the market for benchmark issues and is adopting initiatives to enhance market liquidity and alleviate some of the pressures on the effective supply of these securities. Another evolving trend in the market is the emergence of electronic trading platforms. These platforms have the potential to facilitate the price-discovery mechanism, increase cost efficiency, and improve the liquidity and transparency of the market.