Posts
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Uninsurable Investment Risks and Capital Income Taxation
This paper studies the capital accumulation and welfare implications of reducing capital income taxation in a general equilibrium economy with uninsurable investment risks. -
March 8, 2018
Canada’s Economic Expansion: A Progress Report
Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their March 7 decision. -
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data
Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. -
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies
Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. -
August 15, 2013
The Accuracy of Short-Term Forecast Combinations
This article examines whether combining forecasts of real GDP from different models can improve forecast accuracy and considers which model-combination methods provide the best performance. In line with previous literature, the authors find that combining forecasts generally improves forecast accuracy relative to various benchmarks. Unlike several previous studies, however, they find that, rather than assigning equal weights to each model, unequal weighting based on the past forecast performance of models tends to improve accuracy when forecasts across models are substantially different. -
Contribution of Human Capital Accumulation to Canadian Economic Growth
This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada. -
December 14, 2007
The Costs of Inflation in New Keynesian Models
Ambler describes three new channels through which inflation affects economic welfare in New Keynesian models. These channels were absent from traditional analyses and may have caused researchers to underestimate the costs associated with variable inflation, even at relatively low levels of inflation. The article concludes with a preliminary assessment of the quantitative importance of the new channels and their significance for monetary policy. -
Policy Rules for Capital Controls
This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies. -
May 14, 2015
Fine-Tuning the Framework for the Bank’s Market Operations
Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson discusses proposed changes to the Bank’s financial market operations.