Staff research, Publications
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A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada
The authors develop a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model in an attempt to understand the dynamic relationships in Canadian macroeconomic data. -
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine
In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. -
January 30, 2004
Annual Report 2003
At the Bank of Canada, we have worked hard over the past several years to define our goals and our methods for achieving them. We have continued to strengthen our monetary policy framework, and we have established priorities in all areas of our operations to help us meet our strategic objectives. In 2002, the Bank set out a medium-term plan for the period 2003–05. The plan’s clearly defined policy frameworks and priorities were critical in guiding our analysis and our decisions in 2003, a year in which Canadians across the country were affected by a number of severe and unanticipated events. -
January 23, 2004
Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004
Cover page
Brass Cash Register, 1910
The register is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
Photographed by Gord Carter, Ottawa.
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January 22, 2004
Monetary Policy Report Update – January 2004
Since the October Monetary Policy Report, three developments have led the Bank of Canada to modify its outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada. -
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. -
The Effect of Adjustment Costs and Organizational Change on Productivity in Canada: Evidence from Aggregate Data
A basic neoclassical model of production is often used to assess the contribution of investment to output growth. In the model, investment raises the capital stock and output growth increases in proportion to the growth in capital. -
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December 23, 2003
The Comparative Growth of Goods and Services Prices
For several decades, the prices of services have been rising more rapidly than the prices of goods in Canada and the other major industrialized countries. In 2002, this gap between the growth rates of these two components of the consumer price index (CPI) widened considerably, leading researchers to ask if this was the beginning of a trend. Analysis reveals, however, that the gap is based on short-term dynamics and that it appears to be independent of the trend in the development of the overall price level. Evidence also shows that the gap is eventually reabsorbed. The authors examine a number of potential causes for the prices of services to rise faster than those of goods. These include the more rapid pace of productivity growth in the goods sector, the greater openness of goods to foreign trade, and stronger growth in the demand for services.