Staff research, Publications
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Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate
According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. -
International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach
The authors model trading by foreign and domestic investors in developed-country equity markets. -
Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Small Open Economy
The author studies the macroeconomic consequences of discretionary changes in the fiscal policy instruments for Canada. -
October 21, 2004
Monetary Policy Report – October 2004
The Canadian economy continues to adjust to major global developments. -
October 8, 2004
Business Outlook Survey - Autumn 2004
Businesses remain essentially as optimistic about the economic outlook as they were in the summer survey. Although they have marked down their growth forecast for the U.S. economy, businesses expect stronger domestic demand.Supplemental questions on the appreciation of the Canadian dollar - October 2004
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Prévision et analyse de la production manufacturière au Canada : comparaison de modèles linéaires et non linéaires
In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. -
A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada
The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada. -
Finance Constraints and Inventory Investment: Empirical Tests with Panel Data
The author empirically tests two aspects of the interaction between financial variables and inventory investment: negative cash flow and finance constraints due to asymmetric information. -
The Implications of Transmission and Information Lags for the Stabilization Bias and Optimal Delegation
In two recent papers, Jensen (2002) and Walsh (2003), using a hybrid New Keynesian model, demonstrate that a regime that targets either nominal income growth or the change in the output gap can effectively replicate the outcome under commitment and hence reduce the size of the stabilization bias.